Surviving The Bluenami: 2026 Election Night Reaction

00:00:00 Speaker 1: Hey, everyone. 00:00:00 Speaker 2: Blake here. This is part of our election stream from Tuesday night. Obviously, things didn't go great, but we always pick ourselves up and we soldier on. And so this is the second half of Tuesday night's stream where we talk about what happened, what are some lessons we can take away from it, and how do we move on to retake our country and get some wins for America in 2028 and beyond. So we're going to be starting with our simulcast with Piers Morgan, and we'll be going for about two hours afterwards. 00:00:30 Speaker 3: My name is Charlie Kirk. I run the largest pro-American student organization in the country fighting for the future of our republic. My call is to fight evil and to proclaim truth. 00:00:41 Speaker 1: If the most important. 00:00:42 Speaker 3: Thing for you is just feeling good, you're going to end up miserable. But if the most important thing is doing good, you will end up purposeful. College is a scam, everybody. You got to stop sending your kids to college. You should get married as young as possible and have as many kids as possible. Go start a Turning Point USA college chapter. Go start a Turning Point USA high school chapter. 00:01:02 Speaker 2: Go find out how. 00:01:03 Speaker 3: Your church can get involved. Sign up and become an activist. I gave my life to the Lord in fifth grade. Most important decision I ever made in my life, and I encourage you to do the same. Here I am. 00:01:13 Speaker 1: Lord, use me. Buckle up, everybody. 00:01:16 Speaker 3: Here we go. Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show. a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals. Learn how you could protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com. That is noblegoldinvestments.com. 00:01:44 Speaker 4: With me now is Turning Point USA spokesman Andrew Colbert and Turning Point contributor Jack Posobiec as we join the TBSA midterms live stream. 00:01:53 Speaker 2: Hi, Chaps. 00:01:54 Speaker 5: How are you? 00:01:55 Speaker 1: Well, Piers, thanks for having us tonight. We've been better. It's obviously not the way we wanted tonight to go. 00:02:01 Speaker 5: But listen, I think this is going to be a wake-up call. I mean, there's been a number of us that have been sounding the alarms on some of this stuff. Obviously, we believe our ideas are better, but we understood that there was going to be fault lines and wedge issues that were going to come to bear on election night. We just didn't know if there was going to be a vote against some of the crazies and the radicals on the left. That hasn't materialized, and it's a good night for the Democrats. 00:02:28 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you know, I would say that a lot of this is completely self-inflicted. You can argue as much as you like about the merits of things like the Iran war, the use of ICE agents, and so on. But the reality is that the exit polls are showing that a majority of Americans have a big problem with some of the behavior of the ICE agents, having agreed with the shutting of the southern border. The economy is the big issue at the exit polls, and they blame Trump for his handling of it. And the Iran war is very unpopular with the majority of Americans. It has been from the start. It's got increasingly unpopular because Americans have been able to draw the line directly from the attack on Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the failure of energy supplies to get through that strait for months and months and months, and the inevitable knock-on effect with gas prices in the United States and food prices and so on. So a lot of this is self-inflicted. And, you know, I would argue if I was a MAGA supporter, a big Trump supporter, who voted for him in 2024, I voted for somebody who vowed not to wage foreign wars and and to get the cost of living and inflation down and make America more affordable. And yet by attacking Iran when he did, Donald Trump has, you know, many people say betrayed what he campaigned on. 00:03:53 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we've been discussing this all night over here, Piers, and that's basically what we've said, that if we want to find an upbeat message here, we don't feel that an America First policy platform got repudiated tonight. what we've experienced is a lot of people who feel that they were promised something in 2024, and then that promise was betrayed. And we think that is a mistake because we've talked here that delivering on the border, on crime, there are a ton of wins this administration should be proud of, and the people who voted for it should be proud of. But if you're that college student who'd never considered voting Republican until 24, if you're someone who was an Obama voter, really liked him, and you hated the Iraq war when you were a kid, but you were suddenly ready to give him a shot again, that no new wars part was just a big part of that, that idea that this was the Republican who finally was serious and had proven his worth of avoiding wars, saying no to the neocon war legacy, focusing on America. And when they did that war with Iran, something that nobody was promising, nobody was running on, that. 00:05:00 Speaker 1: Type of voter. 00:05:01 Speaker 2: felt betrayed and unhappy, and it just put a bad pall over everything. A lot of those people stayed home. Also, they caused bad energy. They maybe encouraged other voters to stay out of it. It just created that bad vibe. And the culmination of a lot of bad vibes is bad election results. But we want to emphasize, we think there's a lot for the administration to be proud of. There are a lot of wins. And I would feel much less happy if the number one issue in this election was, like, immigration and the border, and we got killed like this. But instead, immigration was basically an on-issue. There's polls where some people say it went too far, but that's not what people. 00:05:39 Speaker 1: Are repudiating tonight. 00:05:41 Speaker 2: They are angry about the economy, they're angry about Iran, and they're angry about the sense that the administration wasn't delivering on its 24 promises. And I will take that reality over one where our worldview got repudiated. 00:05:55 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I would say it's not quite as simple as that, because although... the majority of Americans, vast majority, agreed with the shutting of the southern border, particularly after how porous the Biden administration had made it for four years with up to 10 million people just wandering in illegally. If you look at the exit polls, you know, six out of 10 do disapprove of what they perceive to be Trump's use of the ICE agents in an overreach way. And of course, we saw people being shot dead in the streets and so on. In other words, the fundamental principle of his immigration policy was very popular But the excessive behavior of some of those ICE agents ruined it in a way. And so people aren't talking about the great achievement on the exit polls of shutting the border. They're talking about the appalling antics of some of those ICE agents. 00:06:46 Speaker 2: Sure, Piers. But what I would say is even if there's a small majority say they are less happy, there's just not evidence that that is what swung this election. It's not polling as the top issue for the people who are voting against Trump. And as a comparison, in 2018, they did say that. In 2018, immigration was like the number one issue in the midterms in some exit polls, number one or number two. It wasn't even in the top three this time. And then just the numbers are overall not that decisive. So a slight majority thinks that the president's immigration enforcement went too far. Compare that to the absolute screaming numbers on stuff like cost of living or the economy. I don't think that's the issue that defined this race. When the New York Times was writing their endorsement for Democrats this week, In 2018 and 2020, they were saying, this is a racist president whose immigration policies have gone way too far. This time, they basically didn't talk about it. And the New York Times, to the extent they represent a zeitgeist of the left, they were not eager to highlight that issue. 00:07:48 Speaker 6: I agree. 00:07:48 Speaker 4: But I would say that the number one issue to me is the economy. But that is inextricably linked to the Iran war, because without the Iran war, you would not be seeing prices at the gas pump in the way that they are. And you wouldn't see food prices where they are. You wouldn't see inflation where it is. There is a direct line to be drawn from that decision. As we're talking, chaps, I've just heard that CBS have just called the House flipping Democrats. So the Republicans have now officially, according to CBS, lost the House. Not a massive surprise, but that's just happened as I'm talking to you. But I do think on the exit polls, they're all saying the economy is the big issue. And it is linked directly to the Iran war. And, you know, I just think it's a shame for Trump that if you take the Iran war out of the equation, he'd probably have quite a much better story to tell because the economic hardship of many Americans are suffering wouldn't be happening. The basis of the American economy is quite good. The fundamentals are good. It's just that people, working class men and women in America, are really feeling the pinch. And you look at farmers, for example. Farmers, a lot of farmers love Trump, voted for Trump. But what they didn't vote for was a massive tariff war, which was then compounded by the Iran war. And it's left farmers really struggling up and down America. So that's why I say a lot of this is self-inflicted. 00:09:12 Speaker 1: He didn't need to do this. 00:09:14 Speaker 4: And I think it's a real shame for Trump and his legacy if he now loses control of Congress completely. It doesn't mean he has no powers left, but it certainly will clip his wings in a way that he could never have anticipated a few months into the second term. 00:09:29 Speaker 7: So, Piers, it looks like, you know, we just called that we've lost the House. You know, if Republicans also lose the Senate, what's your prediction? I mean, do you think Democrats double down on a bad bet? Do you think they did what they did during Trump's first term and just, you know, go back? balls to the wall to try to destroy the guy because I think that actually helps us in 2028. 00:09:48 Speaker 4: I agree and I hope and pray they don't. I would love to see it would be really refreshing if the Democrats resisted the temptation to simply do to the Republicans what the Republicans do to them and so on and so on, going back so long now we've all forgotten when it started. The tit-for-tat stuff is not in the American national interest. What's in the American national interest now is to fix things like the economy. And I think the way you do that is by putting all your time and effort in Congress, in that building behind me now, into coming together. to work on these things for the good of American people. Now, is that likely to happen? I suspect not, right? Because the Democrats won't be able to resist coming after Trump, coming after Hegseth, coming after Trump's family, impeaching, impeaching, impeaching, investigation, investigation, investigation. And if I'm an American citizen, which I'm not, but if I was, I'd be like, well, how is any of this helping me? Because whatever happens, the impeachment of Trump is unlikely to ever succeed. We know that. And if anyone does have any criminal liability of his team or his family, he'll pardon them all anyway. So the consequences for any of this, I'm not saying they shouldn't be done, investigations, but if that is the focus of Democrat energy and attention after this thumping win, as it appears to be in the midterms, what a waste of their energy, I would argue. 00:11:13 Speaker 8: Well, Piers, and, you know, one of the things that we were just talking about right before you came on was this very topic. And One of the things that a lot of us pointed out as well is that when you mentioned the farmers just there, for example, it's, you know, for those of us on sort of the internecine battles of MAGA and the conservative sphere and on the Republican side, you've always had this fight of sort of the MAGA populist America first side versus the more interventionist hawkish side. And the argument that I have been making is that America first didn't lose tonight. In fact, America first was co-opted successfully by many of the Democrats, including El-Sayed, and it remains to be seen how that race shakes out. But he was running on a message and using ads that easily could have been run by pro-Trump MAGA Republicans in 2024 against Joe Biden, particularly when it came to household costs. And, you know, there's that ad he had where he was raising the milk carton and the jug of gasoline, the gallon of gasoline. It was a very, very clever ad, and it was an effective ad. But what it wasn't was an ad for wokeness. It certainly wasn't an ad for the types of socialist policies that we know are pushed by the radical side of that party, which he certainly has a lot of ties to. And instead, these are the types of things that you would typically hear from an America-first populist. So, The question that I have, number one, is can the Republicans find their way back to that populist message? I think, yes, if they listen to the actual results here and read them the way they should. And then, number two, to your point, will Democrats govern the way that they campaigned? 00:12:59 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's fascinating to watch. I've lived and worked on and off in America for 20 years, and I've never seen a situation where both parties are basically now facing– a ferocious battle for what their heart, soul and minds really are going to be. 00:13:14 Speaker 5: Right. 00:13:14 Speaker 4: So on the Republican side, you have so many people splintering away from Trump, from who used to love it. Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson, all these all the Marjorie Taylor Greene and others. And so there's a real split there. And they would argue that they are purer to the MAGA ideal than Trump has become. That actually, yeah, they agree. No more foreign wars. Get inflation down. America first. And he's gone against all that. So they would say they are the actual real MAGA people. And they've got a good argument for that. On the left, you're going to have a fascinating battle here. If Al-Said wins in Michigan, which looks likely, 97% I'm looking at here on Polymark's Lakers numbers. So heading toward to win. Mike Rogers down to 2%. Looks like that may be all over. If he is to win, then that's a massive win for the real hard progressive left in America. And you're seeing Mamdani, al-Sayed, AOC. These are the dominant figures of the Democratic Party. But you're also seeing people like Nancy Pelosi and Pete Buttigieg and others. They're recoiling from this, trying to pull them back to the center because they probably suspect a progressive left candidate cannot win in 2028. So both parties are going to have a real day of, I think, reckoning coming after here. You've got two years to a general election. Which way are we going to go? You know, it's interesting to me looking at the numbers in the exit polls. Trump has lost independents. He's lost Latinos. lost a lot of black support that he had in the general election. Can the Republicans get that back? It's going to be a hard task. Who are they going to go for? Are they going to go for J.D. Vance? Are they going to go for Marco Rubio? Could it be Ron DeSantis, who's been suddenly being very vocal now, distancing himself from a lot of what he calls the more delusional arm of the MAGA side of the party? So there's an awful lot going on here with both parties, and I think it's going to be fascinating to see which road they go down in the run-up to the general election? 00:15:12 Speaker 5: Well, the thing that I've seen passed around most right now this evening, Piers, is the, you know, that Mark Thiessen, Washington Post op-ed saying, there's no downside in attacking and striking Iran. I think that was, I think there's two psychic breaks that happen with the base. We hear this from our students at Turning Point. You know, they're the ones that are tabling on campus and they have to defend Even if they don't agree with it, they're asked to defend policies that they didn't necessarily vote for either. And that is the two psychic breaks were the Epstein files, how that was handled, and the Iran war. You have Democrats that didn't like what happened with ICE. We never heard that from the base. The base actually was very much behind that. But it was the Iran war that really caused the wedge issue with the base. What did that do? Online social media, chaos. It scattered the message. We had infighting. We weren't singing from the same song sheet. 00:16:05 Speaker 1: We were all over the place. 00:16:07 Speaker 5: And those two issues, I think, ultimately had a trickle-down effect, a demoralization campaign. And, yeah, we saw this, you know, the Megyn Kellys, the Tuckers, and all the Marjorie Taylor Greens break away. And that was very confusing for a lot of people, I will tell you. We got a lot of that feedback. Our students had to wear the front lines on that. So we'll see if we learn the right lessons. 00:16:29 Speaker 4: I've got Dave Smith here. But Jeff, Dave Smith here wants to love a question. 00:16:34 Speaker 9: Hey, guys, I was just curious. I want to know how you think about this. But as as the turning point guys here, because I thought that was very interesting analysis. I know that maybe the most popular congressman amongst your people and I know the turning points kids fairly well. And I know that Charlie's favorite congressman was Thomas Massey. So when he was unseated by the lobby for Israel representing this other wing that you're talking about that I guess Turning Point and Charlie didn't represent, why didn't you guys lift a finger to defend him? Why didn't the biggest youth outreach Republican organization in the country say anything in the name of Charlie Kirk about his favorite congressman? 00:17:11 Speaker 10: If I can piggyback on that a little bit. 00:17:12 Speaker 6: Let him answer that. 00:17:13 Speaker 10: I want to add to that. It is pretty much exactly on the same point, which is that Charlie also was extremely vociferous against the Iran war. And you're clearly running on his legacy. I mean, his name is plastered on the front of your desk. Why weren't you advocating against that war more aggressively the way he did? He spoke to the president, essentially opposing it. And it seems like TPUSA has also dropped the ball on this entirely. 00:17:35 Speaker 5: I don't think that's a fair analysis at all, actually. 00:17:37 Speaker 1: You know, Blake and I will stand up for ourselves here. 00:17:39 Speaker 5: We've been criticizing. 00:17:41 Speaker 2: Hold on, this is bull crap. We said before the war started that they shouldn't do it. We said it would go badly if they did and they weren't selling this conflict. If they thought it was important, they should actually explain it. They never did. When it started, we said, this is probably going to be unpopular. The only way they can make this stick is if they make it end quickly. That is what we said. Why didn't we crash out and disavow the president? Because Charlie would never crash out and disavow the president. 00:18:05 Speaker 5: There's been a lot of historical revisionism here. So Charlie privately lobbied against the midnight hammer strikes. 00:18:11 Speaker 1: That's totally true. I saw it all. 00:18:13 Speaker 5: I was front and center for a lot of that. But when it came to the president making that decision, he backed the president's play. And he did a whole long explanation for it on social media the next day. So I disagree with the framing of that. There's one clip from the day that the strikes happened where we said we were going to back the president because we thought that's what Charlie would do. We were trying not to put words in his mouth, but that was our best read of things. And we're very cognizant that we're carrying on his legacy. Privately, we've lobbied against it. We were very supportive of J.D. Vance and his peace efforts and getting the MOU. I took a lot of crap for that. I debated different folks on our side, the more neocon wing about it on podcasts. So, yeah, just because you don't see a clip go viral of something that doesn't fit the narrative doesn't mean we're not doing it. 00:19:01 Speaker 4: Hang on, hang on, hang on. I just want to ask the guys one thing, given we're talking about Charlie. So if Charlie was still here, what do you think he would now say to Donald Trump tomorrow if, as seems increasingly likely, the Republicans lose both houses? 00:19:19 Speaker 8: You don't want to you don't want to put words in a guy's mouth like that. I don't think that'd be appropriate to to, you know, to try to say what Charlie would say. 00:19:27 Speaker 7: Let me let me loop back to Massey real quick. And this is something I've tried to be quiet about for months. But, you know, I know Dave Smith. I know Congressman Mace. I know a lot of these people. Turning Point and Citizens Alliance have been great partners. And when Massey was obviously primaried in 2024, we stepped up and we ran the Pennsylvania chase for Donald Trump. And I got a lot of crap from my libertarian friends, but I thought, you know what, it was worth it. 00:19:50 Speaker 1: The battle. 00:19:51 Speaker 7: And in 2026, when people disagree with me, I stood with Massey and turning point has stood by me the entire time. And that was a tough decision for me to make because it would be a lot easier for me to just be on team red. But we came in, we spent millions of dollars to try to help him win. I was very quiet about it because I am trying to build the red wall. But at the end of the day, you stick with people that are principled. I stuck with him. I'm here on Charlie's show tonight, invited by Erica Kirk, believing in what we believe in. So we can be mad about how much support was put forward. But the guy who ran his super PAC and helped him to try to stay elected, I'm here in the room. So I think support for Massey is still heard. 00:20:32 Speaker 6: Yeah, it just doesn't answer my question about turning point. 00:20:33 Speaker 11: I think this is important for Dave and Omar to hear. What you heard earlier, and you guys wanted to go in about the war and everything, but what turning point is, it is a conservative firewall. They're out there, and they just acknowledged tonight, they acknowledged that part of this autopsy is it started with Epstein, and it's ending with the Iran war. So you have to give credit where credit is due, where conservatives who are in the fight every single day, who are trying to build the conservative movement and are and have, and building upon Charlie Kirk's legacy that they're actually willing to admit where some of this comes from. 00:21:04 Speaker 12: I think we've got to acknowledge that. 00:21:05 Speaker 9: Well, forgive me, Congresswoman, but from my perspective, I screamed this at all of them last June. And then what I've been told since then is by Jack Posabiak and others that Donald Trump has had a huge victory in Iran. We've got a huge deal that's about to come, historically. 00:21:21 Speaker 8: Win no dave i said the peace deal would have been victorious i said i supported that you're twisting the words again you're literally twisting the words every single time yet the peace deal if it had stuck which was something i supported which i think all of us here supported was something that would have been a huge. 00:21:41 Speaker 9: Victory the war you supported the. 00:21:45 Speaker 8: No, I supported the peace deal, Dave. You're going to continue to start lying when you first open your mouth. 00:21:51 Speaker 2: We've repeatedly said we want this war to end with a peace. We think it would be good for America. We think it would be good for the movement. It would be good for MAGA. We've repeatedly argued that. 00:21:59 Speaker 12: Wait, wait, wait. 00:22:00 Speaker 2: So should we not have supported the peace deal? 00:22:03 Speaker 1: Why would you rather have us do? 00:22:05 Speaker 7: If I may, gentlemen. 00:22:07 Speaker 1: Tell the lie. I'll share the tweet after this. 00:22:09 Speaker 4: If I may, I would like to announce a peace deal between all of us. We came together... to share our streams. It's been great talking to you guys. I think we should leave on a happy, content note of peace. 00:22:20 Speaker 2: Amongst all of us. 00:22:21 Speaker 9: Sad state of affairs. 00:22:22 Speaker 1: For all of us. 00:22:23 Speaker 4: But I appreciate joining you guys. Thank you very much. 00:22:26 Speaker 1: Hold on. Thanks, Piers. We appreciate you having us. 00:22:29 Speaker 6: Thank you. 00:22:30 Speaker 5: I feel like some of this, some of that stuff is really unfair from Dave, but that's fine. 00:22:37 Speaker 1: I asked a question. We appreciate you having us on. We do. 00:22:40 Speaker 12: No, you lied. Yeah, you're just a liar. 00:22:42 Speaker 2: Dave is doing his usual shtick of being. 00:22:45 Speaker 1: A dishonest liar. 00:22:47 Speaker 9: I'll share the tweet right after. 00:22:49 Speaker 8: No, you got in this with me last time and you admitted that you lied on X. 00:22:53 Speaker 2: You already admitted that you lied about this, Dave. 00:22:56 Speaker 1: You already admitted that you lied. 00:22:57 Speaker 5: Dave, Dave, we supported peace. I mean, you know, sue us. I don't know what you want. So we supported peace. That's the bottom line. 00:23:04 Speaker 9: Supporting the war bonger. 00:23:07 Speaker 2: I support the truth. 00:23:08 Speaker 8: I'm just going to support the truth that we supported peace deal. 00:23:13 Speaker 1: Well, that was interesting. 00:23:14 Speaker 8: You know what's funny is I actually got into that with him over X a while back, and he was like, oh, and people pointed out to him that what I had said was about the deal. And then he kind of went back and said, oh, well, I assumed you meant something else, so therefore I'm still right. 00:23:33 Speaker 12: And it was like, what? 00:23:35 Speaker 2: I just get so furious about this crap they do. Why didn't you support Massey? Well, okay, because Massey has crashed out and wanted to derail an administration that secured the border and fought against DEI. 00:23:45 Speaker 7: I don't know if we should use the word derail. 00:23:49 Speaker 2: I know you're friendlier with him. You're fine to have that opinion. 00:23:52 Speaker 5: Bottom line is we were asked to get involved in the anti-Massey thing. 00:23:59 Speaker 1: We didn't. 00:24:00 Speaker 5: And we knew you were working on it. And that was about the best that was going to happen in that situation. And this this constant, you know, Charlie said that Massey was his favorite congressman, I think, in 2023 or 2022. 00:24:14 Speaker 1: Whenever that clip was. 00:24:15 Speaker 5: And I took a lot of crap for basically saying that he was disappointed when he didn't vote for the one. 00:24:20 Speaker 1: Big, beautiful bill. 00:24:21 Speaker 5: OK, that that's that's the truth. He was disappointed. And that's fair. 00:24:25 Speaker 1: It's OK. 00:24:27 Speaker 5: It doesn't have to be the end of the world either way. If Thomas Massey would have won that race. We would have had his back and tried to work with him. That's the bottom line. So, you know, Gowran won tonight, by the way, which is. 00:24:38 Speaker 8: Well, and by the way, and I'm just going to be fair on this, and I also did not get involved in that one way or the other, but he and I got into it a number of times. 00:24:48 Speaker 12: Over the border and over immigration policy. 00:24:50 Speaker 8: So it's not like there was only one issue and one vector that that race was about. And so to try to be reductive and say, oh, there was only one thing– to your point– The one big beautiful bill was part of it. The border was part of it. Immigration enforcement was part of it. There were a lot of things. And, yes, also the war. So it's not like that was the only issue that led to that huge blowup between the president and the congressman. 00:25:16 Speaker 1: Yeah, to act like that, that was just so unexpected. 00:25:19 Speaker 8: That was a long time coming. And I'll say it, by the way, and Epstein as well. But the split had existed beforehand is. 00:25:26 Speaker 1: What I'm saying. 00:25:27 Speaker 3: All right. 00:25:29 Speaker 5: Charlie Kirk believed that ideas shape character, conviction, and courage. That's why he spent years studying the classics, the American founding, and the Bible through Hillsdale College's free online courses. Continue that commitment to learning with C.S. Lewis on Christianity, a free seven-lesson course featuring Professor Michael Ward, a leading Lewis scholar. Are right and wrong a matter of opinion? How can a good God allow suffering? Lewis's writings take these questions seriously. In works including Mere Christianity and The Abolition of Man, he defends moral truth and explores what Christianity asks of us. You'll follow his journey from unbelief to faith and examine his insights into prayer, grief, and the hope of heaven. Discover lessons that challenge you to think very carefully about Christianity and put your understanding into practice. You can enroll today completely free. Visit charlieforhillsdale.com to start learning today. That's charlieforhillsdale.com. Learn deeply. Think clearly. Lead boldly. Carry it forward. Charlie for Hillsdale dot com. 00:26:33 Speaker 7: Back to the Senate map. 00:26:34 Speaker 1: Back to the Senate map. 00:26:36 Speaker 5: By the way, Ohio is that that race is separated by about 30, 35000 votes. Sherrod Brown is up 35000. There's a million votes still outstanding. We have Brett Kaliszewski and I believe we have Tyler Boyer ready in the turning point action race. 00:26:54 Speaker 1: Uh, studio. What's going on? Brett Galashevsky, Tyler Boyer. Welcome back. Sorry. We had to go argue with, uh, uh, Dave Smith. Apparently go ahead. 00:27:02 Speaker 6: While you were, while you were arguing Dave Smith, they called a bunch of races. So it's important to kind of go through some of these. Um, I think they just called Wisconsin as well for governor. Uh, so Tom Tiffany goes down, uh, the race in Michigan. They'd called a while ago for, for, uh, for governor. Um, they, I think they called, they called ours in Arizona. So while you guys were arguing, they, they announced they, uh, they released the initial results and they already called the statewide for Arizona. So Andy Biggs goes down, uh, we're waiting on results in, in Nevada too. Uh, I mean, but this is just like, uh, I mean, it's, it's, it's a lot, it's a lot going on. 00:27:48 Speaker 4: Yeah. 00:27:49 Speaker 5: With, with this. 00:27:50 Speaker 1: Um, yeah. Andy. 00:27:52 Speaker 5: So, NBC hasn't called it for either way in Arizona, but Andy would need 66.9% of the remaining vote to overtake Katie Hobbs. 00:28:00 Speaker 6: I think they called on decision desk. So they, uh, yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's pretty rough and it's, and it's throughout the entire state. So all of the, it's not just his race. It's every race. 00:28:13 Speaker 1: How's Feely looking? 00:28:15 Speaker 6: Feely is maybe the only race that has like a, some kind of shot. um it's a long shot probably but it's a shot he's only down last i checked about 30 000 votes um but he's i mean it's it's a it's a long it's a long long. 00:28:33 Speaker 5: Shot here all right what about eli crane are we safe. 00:28:36 Speaker 6: There eli crane looks like he's gonna be fine he should pull through he's only a few thousand votes down after the initial drop and remember this is how it works now we're getting to the states where it's like this not the normal states are They release all the votes together, and you kind of know what's going on in Florida, New Hampshire, those types of races, and you know what's going on. In Arizona and Nevada and other states like that, California, what we're going to see is you first get the initial early votes, the mail-in votes, and then you're going to get the next tranche, which is some more early votes, and then you're going to get election day, and then you're going to get the late earlies, and. 00:29:18 Speaker 6: That's all going to start piling up, but you know, Andy was probably Andy Biggs. I know so many people were listening and wanting to watch how close this would be. I mean, Republicans were doing very well with turnout, but I mean, the story of the night from our data team who we were hoping to have something that was close enough so we could talk about all of this in depth. But our data team, you know, we're looking at is like this comes down to the independents and the independent break here that did not show up in polling was far worse than I think anyone could have ever expected across the country. 00:29:53 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, listen, when you model this out, you've got to make certain assumptions. And one of the assumptions that we were making was that it was going to be a 43-57 break on the Indies. But if that ends up coming back 35, forget about it. I don't know what you're seeing and what we're predicting. People also need to understand when we chase low-propensity conservatives, that's who we're chasing. We're chasing low-propensity conservatives. but you don't really know how the Indy vote's going to go. But in 2024, we won the Indy vote, right? So that's a huge swing from 2024. Brett, Brett, what are you looking at right now? 00:30:35 Speaker 13: A couple bright spots right now. I just want to quick focus our attention on. So Maine CD2, this very well may be our only Republican flip of the night. Paula Page going to flip a seat there in Maine in a state that Susan Collins may very well win or sorry, lose. And it looks like they may be close to calling that. So Rare bright spot there. Derek Marin in Ohio 9 is hanging on by a thread right now. That could be a bright spot. And then right now still looking at Iowa, Marionette Miller-Meeks. If you guys remember back in 2020, this was the Republican candidate. Yeah, she won by six votes in 2020. And then the following election, she won by like 280, which is a landslide by her standards. She's sticking in it. So right now she's only a point down. and everything that I'm seeing and people that I trust say it's still a toss-up there. 00:31:22 Speaker 14: So a couple bright spots for us to hang our hat on. 00:31:25 Speaker 5: Yeah, Susan Collins is starting to fall behind, unfortunately. She's down by about 6,000 votes. There's, you know, 589,000 outstanding. 00:31:36 Speaker 1: So we'll see. 00:31:37 Speaker 5: It depends where those votes are coming from and, you know, what is outstanding. If they're heavy Dem, you know, districts, then that could bode well. poorly if you're thinking if you're hearing that they might call that soon uh but you know 51 to 48 it's it's we'll see what happens there but you know the. 00:31:56 Speaker 6: The problem the problem with suit for susan is that there's still a lot of votes to be counted in some of these higher populated uh lib areas um yeah portland is. 00:32:06 Speaker 2: Only 28 in cumberland county well that's about consistent with the it's a little bit below and then who knows where it is within maybe it's not even portland itself or something but. 00:32:16 Speaker 6: The vast majority of the votes that are in big areas are remaining to be counted are in that area. So that's a real problem for Susan Collins. And then with the trends that everything else is going, that's not lending. There's no savior areas here that you're going to see. And I... I think they called LePage. Is that right, Brett? Did they call LePage? 00:32:47 Speaker 7: Or no, still leans are. 00:32:49 Speaker 2: It's not called on the New York Times, at least. 00:32:53 Speaker 6: I think they're going to hold out. I wouldn't be surprised if they hold out because, you know, they're counting the state very, very slow because of ranked choice voting. So it's going to take a minute in that state to get results done. top to bottom. And it's all the local races in particular that it's dragging things out. 00:33:18 Speaker 7: In Pennsylvania, they have officially flipped District 7. So that's Ryan McKenzie, Bob Brooks, the Democrat, New York Times officially calling that. We still have Bresnahan, which is very likely to be a flip. And Perry, which is probably the toughest one for me to discuss, but Scott Perry, it looks like it's still Looking like it's Democrat, not called yet, but that is going to be a difficult one, former Freedom Caucus chairman, to have people like him and Biggs and some of these others kind of out of Congress as fighters. 00:33:49 Speaker 6: It's tough. 00:33:50 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:33:50 Speaker 6: I mean, we're looking at— A lot. Tom Tiffany, too. I mean, you have so many members of the Freedom Caucus who are retiring or are getting retired, in that case with Perry. I mean, it changes the face. It changes the landscape, actually. for the worst of Congress, so much further beyond just losing control of Congress. Yeah, you've got. 00:34:14 Speaker 7: Chip Roy losing his primary. You've got Ralph Norman losing. You've got Byron, who won, but he's now out of Congress, right? 00:34:20 Speaker 2: We might lose, just kind of looking around, we might lose every Republican in New Jersey except the unconquerable Chris Smith, who's winning easily. 00:34:28 Speaker 5: I mean, we could be, we're looking, like, 260 for the Dems is not out of the question. 00:34:35 Speaker 2: Okay, that'd be really ugly. 00:34:37 Speaker 1: But, yes. 00:34:38 Speaker 2: I mean, the big one to watch is really, it's Texas, because basically, are the gerrymanders going to get cracked? Because if they crack that. 00:34:45 Speaker 1: They will get cracked some. 00:34:46 Speaker 2: Some might, but it is the big question. Because if they can suddenly... It's like you built a wall over a flood tide, and if it floods over, then you suddenly lose 10 seats in Texas all at once. And if that happens, then that's how you get that 260 territory. But failing that, I mean, it looks like they didn't really crack Florida's Virginia, they weren't able to push theirs through, so it looks like they'll flip two, but they're not going to get that 10-1 map or whatever it was they talked about. We'll have at least two there. California, of course, they're going to knock out several because they did get their map in. Arizona, we'll have a few flips there. Iowa's likely going to have some flips. 00:35:25 Speaker 5: I hate to say it, guys, but the house, it could be 260 Dems. 00:35:32 Speaker 7: Hold on. Let me have some hope here. Did Brandon Herrera win? please Lord tell me what's district is he again? Texas 22. Is it 22? 00:35:40 Speaker 2: He was way down when I was checking, but I don't know how that projected. It was not, it was not projected right now as a toss up by the New York times with a 55, 42 Democrat lead 61% in. 00:35:50 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:35:51 Speaker 7: It's tough. 00:35:53 Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, listen, the, you know, there's, there's, this is one of those nights where there's not going to be a lot of bright spots. 00:36:02 Speaker 1: Uh, that's why I like where you're, where your head's at. 00:36:04 Speaker 5: Uh, Brett, you've been working the ground, talking to voters, activists. What were some of the themes that you were hearing when you were interacting with folks? 00:36:14 Speaker 14: Yeah, it was a whole plethora of things. 00:36:17 Speaker 13: First and foremost, I think obviously the war in Iran was a big concern, especially amongst low-propensity voters. Typically, your low-propensity voter isn't really an issues-based voter. They just don't value their vote in the same way that all of us do. And for the first time, in particular in comparison to 2024, they were talking about those front headline issues as potentially a reason to stay home. And so, you know, we knew that pretty early on that it was going to be really uphill, especially during our relational organizing model and kind of the initial contact of, like, how are we going to rewire a lot of these voters to start thinking towards a post-Trump world? And, you know, I'll just kind of throw some numbers out here. Like, you know, pretty early on, the first couple minutes after New Hampshire report it, We were looking towards northern New Hampshire, which is Trump country. It's a place where Sununu would have needed about 80 percent of the Trump vote from 2024 to be able to compete statewide. And pretty much from the get go, he was trending at only about 50 percent. Berlin, which is way up north, an area that Trump won by about three points in 2024. Sununu was instantly down by 10 to 12 points. So, you know, it could mean one of two things that Trump voters just did not turn out in the way that we thought they would. Or the left has just done a particularly fantastic job of hitting their ceiling marks in these deep red areas, ballot chasing, using a relational organizing model that turns relationships into new votes. 00:37:42 Speaker 14: They will often penetrate these. 00:37:44 Speaker 13: Deep red areas with this kind of lose by less mindset. And looking at tonight, you know, I think that the left has now seen the benefits of having permanent infrastructure that over the last 10 years in a lot of these states that we're seeing marginal wins in. 00:38:01 Speaker 14: This is our maiden voyage cycle in the Granite State. 00:38:04 Speaker 6: Yeah, it looks like Cliff, they did call Perry's race. 00:38:08 Speaker 7: All three are done. The only one we have left is District 1, Fitzpatrick. 00:38:12 Speaker 6: Which is still a toss-up. 7, 8, and 10. 00:38:15 Speaker 1: He's down 20,000. 00:38:15 Speaker 7: He's down 20,000 votes. 00:38:16 Speaker 6: Yeah, does not look good. 00:38:17 Speaker 1: So I think that goose is cooked. 00:38:28 Speaker 6: Some others that are out there. 00:38:29 Speaker 14: Can I give you guys another bright spot here? 00:38:31 Speaker 2: Oh, man, we'll take any. 00:38:32 Speaker 6: Bright spot right now. Wait, let me say one more negative before you say a bright one. Wait, wait, let me say one more negative. Brett's just living off of a high because he's a Milwaukee Brewers fan. He's got an unfair amount of extra high in his body this week. But real quick, this is just to flag. When we talk about the Freedom Caucus, Lauren Boebert right now is also down about 10 percent. 00:38:58 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:38:59 Speaker 6: No, I'm sorry. Five percent, four or five percent in her race. And that's 80 percent. And so there's a really good chance that she's going to be she's going to be gone. All right. Go ahead with something positive. 00:39:13 Speaker 13: So we talk about losing some Freedom Caucus members. We will be gaining the youngest member of Congress now in Michael Alfonso. 00:39:22 Speaker 14: He's 26 years old. 00:39:23 Speaker 8: Oh, nice. 00:39:23 Speaker 14: Super conservative. 00:39:25 Speaker 15: Yeah. 00:39:25 Speaker 14: So he will win in northern Wisconsin. 00:39:27 Speaker 13: He is actually Sean Duffy, the secretary of transportation. 00:39:30 Speaker 14: Son in law. 00:39:31 Speaker 13: And so 26 year old freedom fighter. I mean, you're going to see him now lock arms with other young freedom fighters like Brandon Gill. So, I mean, you're seeing now Gen Z stepping into larger roles of influence in Congress that that's huge. 00:39:44 Speaker 6: Yeah, we're really proud to endorse him early and support him. I mean, he's the youngest member of Congress by a lot. So that's, again, you need to get to know Michael Alfonso. So he's going to be somebody that's going to be a big deal. He's got a great family, too, a cute little family. 00:40:02 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's got a great family. We had him on the show a number of times. 00:40:04 Speaker 5: Listen, here's the– I mean, listen, I know that we hate to lose some of these guys that have been around that have been good. And, you know, maybe some of them– choose to run again you know when when we got some tailwinds and the whole national mood is different god willing uh but this here is an opportunity where we how long tyler and brett cliff blake have we been raging against some of the old bulls who just can't seem to like you know get the mood of the country and this is an opportunity where there is a purging function here we're gonna have we're gonna lose some good people we're gonna lose some people that Frankly, we're going to be okay in the long run without. There is an opportunity to recruit new, bold, dynamic leaders that can run and really capture some enthusiasm, some energy. 00:40:52 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:40:54 Speaker 6: We're going to need new leadership. I mean, we're going to need– because that's the thing when you have these big wave years like this and resets. I mean, a lot of people just walk away, even people who didn't necessarily lose. But there are entire circles or entire ecosystems of people that prop up some of these people, and they're gone. This is a great time for them to retire. This is a great time for them to go find something else to do. And so, I mean, the conservative movement will remake itself, and that's actually a scary thing given the circumstances of kind of where the conservative movement is right now where there's kind of a lot of different warring factions that want to define what that is. So, I mean, ultimately it will be whoever shows up. 00:41:38 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking up. So like, we got wiped out really about 20 years ago, 2006. I remember that one. You probably remember that one, Andrew. And then 2008, we got wiped out again. And like, it sucked. It was ugly. We got a lot of lib policies from Obama. On the other hand, we I feel like the Republican coalition of the early 2000s might have been one that actually would have voted for amnesty. And as is, you know, you got alarmingly close to it. But In 2010, I know people love to make fun of the Tea Party guys, but that was a much better class of senators, much better class of Republicans than what we had before. I'm looking at who our freshmen were after that class. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, he was a 2010 guy. Marco Rubio, 2010 guy. Rand Paul, 2010 guy. We got some very good, long-lasting Republican icons out of that tumult. 00:42:25 Speaker 1: When you regrouped the movement. 00:42:26 Speaker 2: We had to regroup. We had to get new people, young people, dynamic people. Like, the Florida that we just held the line on today, that high-quality red Florida, was basically... It was already a state that was tilting a little Republican, but we created that Republican machine in Florida in that 2010 to 2020 window. 00:42:47 Speaker 5: I mean, what a tremendous testament to Florida that they withstood this wave year. 00:42:52 Speaker 2: It's crazy to think. That used to be. 00:42:54 Speaker 6: But that's what it took. 00:42:55 Speaker 2: Go blue at, you know, a light breeze. 00:42:57 Speaker 6: But that's what it took is an extra 1.2 million Republicans. 00:43:00 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:43:03 Speaker 6: I mean, that's the point is like, you know, the only places that withstood or like, you know, legitimately Republican plus 15 to 20 areas, right? Like that's the only, those are the only foundations that survived this hurricane. 00:43:20 Speaker 5: Yeah. Well, and here's the thing, Tyler, and you could speak to this better than most and Brett, you too, actually, and Cliff as well. But, you know, this idea that we're, what we see unfolding here is somehow a repudiation of the ground game that we've been begging for. 00:43:37 Speaker 1: We've been building brick by brick. No, actually it's the opposite. 00:43:43 Speaker 5: This, this proves how important it is because when you get the national sentiment, when it changes, when it shifts back, which it will, we, you know, we're going to have to do some soul searching and look in the mirror. And this is a wake up call and come to Jesus moment. But when we look at it, why Tyler talk about why the ground game remains critical, why this changes nothing when it comes to ground game. 00:44:05 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:44:05 Speaker 6: I mean, my biggest fear that exists is that people will dismiss all ground game because they'll, they'll find different reasons for, I mean, what's going to end up happening again is almost certainly tomorrow. People will come out and attack. The left will attack MAGA, right? They will villainize MAGA. That will be the whole, that will be the basis for, all the left's talking points. The right will, many will attack the president, which is a mistake because, you know, I don't think that's going to make anything better. I think there's open debate. But you have a bunch of people who kind of circle around D.C. and some other places who, you know, they will try to make excuses. 00:44:54 Speaker 2: For why we lost. 00:44:55 Speaker 6: They'll make up, like they'll invent new things of why we lost. Yeah, a lot of things that you'll hear is candidate quality. That's going to be a conversation around Paxton and others, right? Like, they're going to say that. And it's just not true. Again, it's just not an argument to be made because I can point to tons of Democrat candidates that are going to win today who are not quality candidates, who just won because of circumstance. 00:45:22 Speaker 1: Yeah, they rode the coattails. 00:45:24 Speaker 16: Yeah. 00:45:25 Speaker 6: But the second thing that– so that's the number one thing you're going to hear. It's going to make it a pathway for a bunch of people who want to make a bunch of money to try to shove in a bunch of people that they've been sitting by and they can make a bunch of money off of a lot of really rich people a lot of times to run them as candidates and yada, yada, yada. And that's what they'll do. But the second thing is a lot of people will attack us or Cliff or whoever else and say, look, you know, getting out the vote is, you know, it doesn't really matter. People don't really care about that. And, you know, I can just say this is, you know, in 2024, when we won, you know, obviously the headwinds were against the Democrats, you know, and we had a unified front. But the unified front was able to go out and do grassroots type activity. And that's what contributed to to the faith that people had as in general into a win. You now have a situation where everybody loses by so much that you can't really tell, you know, what good things made productive gains. And so it makes it easier for people to dismiss those things. And, and that's a problem. That's really a problem for the conservative movement because that sets you back even further from building things because you ultimately people walk just like the same people walk away because they lose. there's people who do all the work that walk away either in the Republican party or they get a turning point or other places, right. And like groups like turning point and get out the vote operations and then they don't return. And then you have to rebuild all those things all over again when you need them, when it's, when it's close. And that would be a massive, massive mistake for the conservative movement to do is to, you know, have a disaster of, you know, the next four to eight years of, and then have to rebuild everything after the desk settles from that. That will set us back decades. 00:47:27 Speaker 1: Cliff, do you want to chime in on that? 00:47:29 Speaker 2: Before we do that, real quick, Decision Desk did call Kansas for the Democrat. 00:47:33 Speaker 5: Wow. 00:47:34 Speaker 4: Wow. 00:47:34 Speaker 1: Yeah, so Tyler. 00:47:37 Speaker 2: I don't mean to laugh. 00:47:38 Speaker 1: There could be no cope here, guys. This is a route. 00:47:41 Speaker 2: It's a bad night. 00:47:41 Speaker 1: It's a bad night. 00:47:42 Speaker 2: It's a bad night. 00:47:43 Speaker 5: It's a route, and now we have to turn our attention to resisting the lunatic lefts that are going. 00:47:48 Speaker 2: To try and ruin the country. 00:47:49 Speaker 6: Guys, they're about to call... I mean, they're about a heartbeat away from calling states like Nebraska. I mean, this is bad stuff. I mean, this is like Nebraska. Holy, like Nebraska. 00:48:09 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:48:11 Speaker 6: Like, that's wild. 00:48:13 Speaker 12: That is wild. 00:48:13 Speaker 6: I mean, Mississippi, they called Tom Cotton, but Tom Cotton– You know, it was single digits, I think, still. Mississippi we brought up. 00:48:23 Speaker 1: He's 13 points up. Tom Cotton is 13 points. 00:48:27 Speaker 6: Oh, I'm sorry. I misread that. Yeah, he's close. But, like, that was tight for a long time. But that Mississippi race that we were talking about is still within 40,000 votes. Like, she's going to pull it out, but, I mean. 00:48:40 Speaker 1: Yes, this was a tectonic quake. It really was, yeah. 00:48:44 Speaker 7: Yeah, and I'll back up what Tyler said. I mean, those are going to be the challenges, right? I shared that Fox News article with you guys about the amount of money. I think it was over $ 11 billion. Let's all think about that. $ 11 billion that was spent on political advertising. All the electioneering combined this cycle. And when you compare that to the budgets of some of the ground game, right, this is going to be our battle is to explain to people the ROI of what it is that we're doing. I mean, the Democrats are 10 years ahead of the Republicans right now. They understand that the rules have changed, and if you don't adapt, you're not going to compete. and so of course the consultants that make all their money on these tv ads the ones that are much smarter than we are because they're making millions of dollars on their commissions yeah they're going. 00:49:30 Speaker 5: To push this is what always ticks me off by the way when they talk about oh the grift or something like this it's like every time we get involved in a race we lose money we are we we are exhausting our resources and like massively like we don't there's no there's no like uh dividend you know like we don't we don't take a cut off the top we just commit to spending money and like chasing our tails to raise it. 00:49:53 Speaker 7: Yeah i just think that you know that's going to be the battle is is the the strategic battle on the right because the left has already figured it out that we have to put our money where it actually makes a difference. And we have to be willing to call some people out. We have to be willing to stand up to this machine of people that is profiting off these campaigns because they still think it's about the message the night before the election and the perfect TV script. Guys, that time is over. The rules allow for 30, 40, 50 days of voting. In some states, voting after the election. So if we don't understand what time it is, but also get that they're not going to lay down easily because you're going after their money. And anytime you're the first guy through the door, as they say in Moneyball, you're going to get bloodied up. But that's got to be the continued battle. None of us that understand relational organizing, something that Charlie pioneered, that Tyler has just completely pushed the RNC on now, we have got to continue this fight. And I think tonight... isn't a setback when it comes to understanding that battle it's saying we know who the enemy is we're surrounded by these idiots that pour so much money into things that don't matter the left doesn't put up with it it's time for the republicans to put their foot down and spend money to actually win elections. 00:51:11 Speaker 5: Yeah, here's a sobering map. I'll have the team get it up. 00:51:15 Speaker 1: But you remember the famous Jake Tapper map where it was like, not one county has gone... Yeah. I mean, we're having the inverse. Oh, no. Oh, wow. 00:51:26 Speaker 2: It is literally not one county. 00:51:27 Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is what the... If you can take the bar off the bottom. Wow. Yeah, so that's what we're looking at. 00:51:34 Speaker 2: Is this for house races or. 00:51:36 Speaker 1: I think that's just like... Yeah, the... This is, I think that's Senate. 00:51:44 Speaker 16: Okay. 00:51:45 Speaker 2: So it's Senate. 00:51:45 Speaker 7: Counties in the Senate races. 00:51:46 Speaker 2: Yeah, counties in the Senate races. 00:51:47 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, I mean, listen. But again, it just popped in and it got bluer. 00:51:54 Speaker 6: Is that the Midwest? I can't see it from here. 00:51:58 Speaker 2: It's the whole country. 00:51:59 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just anywhere. 00:52:00 Speaker 6: Oh, I see it. 00:52:00 Speaker 2: Oh, I can see it now. And you can see it's like where we actually hold that line in Florida. The arrows in Florida are not that blue, where it's really blue. 00:52:08 Speaker 6: Can I tell you what's the scariest thing to me? I was worried that there was going to be craziness, some bad places. It shifted pretty dramatically everywhere. That's actually the freakiest part about this. This was not a regional thing for the most part, at least from what we see so far. 00:52:29 Speaker 1: It seems nationwide. 00:52:31 Speaker 6: It seems like it was pretty evenly distributed to everywhere. 00:52:36 Speaker 7: Vlad is not in yet. 00:52:40 Speaker 1: Neither is california. 00:52:42 Speaker 6: Nevada's not in i think we're waiting still on the governor's race in uh in oregon to see some because you still have right now michelle tapoya is uh um actually in minnesota which is really interesting i think she's gonna get i think she's going to i think it's you know it's only 22.5 percent so we'll see. 00:53:03 Speaker 7: We did hold new hampshire kelly did win Oh, wait, hold on. 00:53:08 Speaker 6: Disregard. 00:53:08 Speaker 7: Never mind. It's not called yet. She's up, but not called yet. 00:53:10 Speaker 2: She's very likely to win. 00:53:12 Speaker 6: She's up about three points right now, and I would be shocked because I think a lot of the bluer areas have already been counted in New Hampshire. I mean, we need to take a look at that. But, yeah, I think most of the blue areas are in, so that's good. So she's going to be fine. She's going to be okay. 00:53:35 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:53:36 Speaker 6: But, I mean, she was up. So, for example, she was up in the polls like 15 to 20 points. 00:53:42 Speaker 14: Yeah. 00:53:43 Speaker 6: I mean, do you realize that? She was up in the polls 15 points. She's probably going to win by, you know, a handful of points. 00:53:51 Speaker 12: I talk about. 00:53:52 Speaker 5: Jobs and industries on this show all the time, but I didn't expect to find an entire skills trade community on TikTok. Plumbers, electricians, builders, and contractors sharing the work they do every day. And it went way beyond tips and tricks. People were sharing their craft, connecting with local contractors, and talking about how they were building their businesses and growing their teams. It opened my eyes to how people in the trades are using TikTok to share their skills, make connections, and find new opportunities. I remember thinking, this is exactly what we need more of, people sharing what they know and creating opportunities for others. And I never expected to find a community like this that's the thing about TikTok. You start with something you know, and suddenly you're finding a whole new side of it that surprises you and leaves you wanting to know more. Your next discovery is waiting for you on TikTok. Learn more at TikTok.com slash discover more. President Trump told the New York Times, well, you know, we'll look forward to working with them, he said. We'll probably work something out. 00:54:54 Speaker 2: Yeah, he also said, he posted on Truth, I wasn't on the ballot, and if I was, we would have won in a landslide. Thank you for your attention to this matter. 00:55:03 Speaker 16: Oh, my. 00:55:04 Speaker 4: Well. 00:55:05 Speaker 1: I mean, he may not be wrong. 00:55:07 Speaker 2: He is a man of unlimited confidence. 00:55:08 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, it's that same spirit that got him where he is. So, you know, it's not going to change it now. And listen, I think what we have to get back to, so there's a ground game element, but you also have to be realistic about the fact that the ground game, you know, Tyler, you're always preaching to me, you can make up three to five points with a good ground game. Three to five points. Well, when you have the national electorate swing down, 10 to 14, 15, 16 points, obviously there's only so much you can do, right? So what we have to then focus on is the messaging and the policies. You know, this is a rebuke of, you know, gas prices, of the Iran war, of maybe some of the messaging, right? The question is, are we going to take the lessons? Are we going to take our medicine, if you will? And I don't see too much based on that tweet and that truth changing from the White House, from the Oval. The question is, will the movement grab hold of something new? 00:56:14 Speaker 7: Well, I think the Democrats are going to give us that opportunity. For a while, the Democrats have just stood back and said, hey, we're not them because they haven't been in power. They've just had to sit there and take it. Well, now the Democrats are going to be leading both chambers, right? They're going to have to take some action. 00:56:30 Speaker 1: A lot of government, a lot of governors. 00:56:32 Speaker 7: Yeah. And based on what we know about the Democrats, they're going to double down. The pendulum does not ever swing back. They keep going further and further. Looney Tunes, more woke, more radical, more destructive to our democracy, if you will. And so I think it's going to create some opportunities for Republicans because I hate to say this, guys, but we play defense a lot better than offense. I wish it wasn't that way. I wish we went on offense all the time and we had some real wins. But every Republican in Congress, both the Senate and the House, why do they all score perfect 100s when we're in the minority? They vote against everything because it's easy. If we get a majority again, I'm going to keep saying this, we cannot squander it, but they are always so strong on defense. And so I do think we're going to get some opportunities because Democrats are in control and now we're going to have to react. We haven't reacted or done anything for two years. I'm talking about the establishment. But now we're going to have the opportunity to react. And if they're crazy, we're going to look like the same ones again. 00:57:34 Speaker 1: Jack's back. 00:57:36 Speaker 2: We were just talking about historically the way things unfold. He's got his book. The way radical anti-American... Should we talk about how socialist revolutions work in every single country that they've taken place in, including, by the way, the literal communist revolution of Russia. They take advantage of when people are unhappy with the decisions of those in power, and they make promises they don't necessarily keep. They usually don't keep. In fact, they pretty much never keep them. But they can sell the promise long enough to get power. 00:58:09 Speaker 12: The way that. 00:58:10 Speaker 8: Vladimir Lenin and Leon Trotsky and all the rest won or gained their support in the. 00:58:19 Speaker 12: Literal Bolshevik revolution. 00:58:20 Speaker 8: was by coming out against dissatisfaction in World War I. And the average Russian, the peasants, who had just been serfs, you know, up until very recently, you know, immediately prior, were so upset about what was going on in World War I, so upset about this slog, this fight, this insanity on the Eastern Front that they were involved in with Germany, that eventually, and keep in mind, one of the czars had already been killed prior to this, And they said, we're done with this. We're so completely done with this system. We're done with this war. 00:58:51 Speaker 2: And what did the Bolsheviks do? 00:58:52 Speaker 8: They came around and they didn't promise. They didn't say that, oh, we're going to throw you in gulags and we're going to have a totalitarian system. No, they said, we're going to offer three things. Peace, land, bread. And we got the book right here. Peace, land, bread. And the socialist revolution was. successful because people believed that the Bolsheviks were going to provide peace, land, and bread. And the socialist revolution that I've been warning about all year, guess what, ladies and gentlemen, buckle up. 00:59:23 Speaker 6: It's here. 00:59:24 Speaker 2: I'm looking at a I'm looking at the results. I will say I don't think we're going to win Minnesota, but it did turn out to be pretty close. Like we've got like I'm looking at like a county that's entirely in. 00:59:35 Speaker 1: Let me grab one of those. 00:59:37 Speaker 2: Like Carver County is a county that Donald Trump won by five points in twenty twenty four. It's ninety five percent in and is winning it by seven. 00:59:45 Speaker 5: Wow. 00:59:45 Speaker 2: So that is a state where we're actually having some counties. 00:59:48 Speaker 1: Well, right now, she's up. I mean, obviously, we're waiting for Twin Cities. 00:59:51 Speaker 7: To bury her. 00:59:51 Speaker 2: New York Times is rating it. There's nothing out of Hennepin. There's nothing out of Ramsey. So Twin Cities' nuke. 00:59:56 Speaker 1: Is going to likely give them some lead. But, yeah, I mean, Michelle Tafoya is. 00:59:59 Speaker 6: They're intentionally holding back. They're intentionally holding back all of that. 01:00:04 Speaker 5: Well, Michelle Tafoya is a candidate that might be worth running again, just for what it's worth. You know, when that comes back around, the next opportunity... I thought. 01:00:14 Speaker 1: She ran a great race. I think she's well-suited for that state. 01:00:18 Speaker 5: And if you hit a cycle that's a little bit more favorable, she's somebody that could really, I think, do something. 01:00:27 Speaker 2: It's just like with Mike Rogers against El Sayed. It's one of those things where you wish this race was any other cycle because then you think we'd probably get that win. This is not the cycle for upsets in blue states. 01:00:38 Speaker 5: Mike Rogers versus El Sayed in 2024, I think he takes that. 01:00:42 Speaker 1: I think he takes that. walking away, you know. 01:00:46 Speaker 5: Uh, the polls have closed in California, Washington state, most of Oregon and Northern Idaho. 01:00:52 Speaker 6: Obviously they already called it against Hilton. 01:00:55 Speaker 1: Yep. Steve Hilton has been called. Um, we're still looking at the Michigan. 01:01:01 Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, Steve Hilton is a, is a great guy who brought so much energy, much like Spencer Pratt to that race. A lot of enthusiasm, a lot of good ideas. Um, galvanized a huge portion of that electorate. It's just such a mountain to climb. Do we have info on Prop 39? 01:01:21 Speaker 1: Voter ID? 01:01:23 Speaker 7: No, they haven't. 01:01:23 Speaker 6: I don't think they've dropped any of the votes yet. Nope, they haven't yet. Mike Rogers is gaining an L, Saeed. 01:01:34 Speaker 2: I'll take it if we can get it. It's still low counting overall. 01:01:40 Speaker 1: Where are we at in Maine? 01:01:42 Speaker 5: Maine, Susan Collins is within 700 votes, and there's still 500,000 outstanding. 01:01:49 Speaker 6: Yeah, that thing will just be, that will come down to the wire. It's going to be. 01:01:55 Speaker 7: Oh, one big win in PA. Hold on, one positive in PA. We did flip a seat, the Lancaster County seat in the state senate. We've got to take our wins tonight. 01:02:09 Speaker 12: I'll give you one, too. In East Tennessee, Kenny Cody won. 01:02:13 Speaker 7: Nice, Kenny. 01:02:14 Speaker 8: Our good friend, Kenny Cody, the former opinion editor of Human Events, has had his race called by the New York Times. He's officially going to be a state rep, which is really, really cool to see. You will not meet anyone more America first than Kenny Cody. Went hard in the paint. He was out there. When the hurricane hit, he was helping people. He was running all sorts of just fundraisers and getting provisions out for people and physically going. 01:02:42 Speaker 12: Out to them. 01:02:43 Speaker 8: And it couldn't happen to a better guy. And so he and I have been chatting. But I did see that the New York Times. 01:02:48 Speaker 2: Called it for him. 01:02:49 Speaker 5: So I want to throw this up because when we're looking at when we're going to get election results in on some of these states like Maine, Maine could be a nail biter. 01:02:58 Speaker 1: We'll see. 01:02:58 Speaker 5: We'll see how that comes down. You know, and Susan Collins, She survives, you know, when other people fail. So I'm not going to count her out at all here. But just so you know, throw this graph up when you can, team. But this is kind of a graph of when you can expect election results in. And you'll see Florida is like, you know, leads the pack completely. But then you see Maine 64% in by 2 a.m. East Coast time, 73% in by 6 a.m. So this is going to be a bit of a lift, and we're going to have to wait on those results for Maine. And Alaska is the same. We're going to have 75% from Alaska until 6 a.m. 01:03:45 Speaker 1: East Coast time. 01:03:46 Speaker 7: Susan Collins and Troy Jackson, if my numbers are correct, they're both dead even at 149,000. I mean, it keeps obviously adjusting, but we're talking a couple hundred votes in a very tight race. Do we know what's come in there? Do we know what's trailing late versus what's already in the door? 01:04:03 Speaker 2: No, right? 01:04:09 Speaker 4: All right. 01:04:10 Speaker 5: Okay, so Brett, why don't you give us this one from Ohio 9? 01:04:14 Speaker 13: Yeah, it looks like we are going to have another flip on our hands that we have finally cracked the code to beating crazy Marcy Kaptur in Ohio 9. Derek Maron, the Republican, he's up by 18,000 votes right now with a little under $ 50 reporting, and that's with most of the city of Toledo already reporting, which is a big boost for us, up by 19 points. So that could be flip number two of the night. 01:04:38 Speaker 14: Another positive. 01:04:38 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a big deal. It's taken the GOP basically the entire cycle for 10 years to try to win that, and it's a big deal. It's a big, big deal. Surprising, kind of, given the circumstances of Ohio right now. 01:04:55 Speaker 5: Yeah, well, Ohio, by the way, there's just a big Big data dump. 01:05:00 Speaker 1: Husted lost 0.1. 01:05:02 Speaker 5: It is at 2,011,000 for Sherrod Brown to 1,921,000. So it's about 90,000 votes separating those guys, 89,000. I don't think they're out there. 01:05:08 Speaker 2: Yeah. 01:05:08 Speaker 5: I mean, with 618,000 left out, I mean, I think this is a 2.1% margin for Sherrod right now. 01:05:12 Speaker 1: Again, this is a. 01:05:13 Speaker 7: State Trump carried by double digits. 01:05:15 Speaker 4: Mm-hmm. 01:05:15 Speaker 3: So.... 01:05:28 Speaker 5: When we're talking about how far the electorate shifted left, we're talking in some States, you're looking at 12 point shifts. Some States might be as high as 14 Texas. Texas is probably more than that. Actually, if you want Trump won Texas by 14 points and it looks like, I mean, those are the Texas Senate race already called. 01:05:52 Speaker 7: Yeah. 01:05:53 Speaker 5: So, you know, we're just we're just waiting to see how how much he's going to lose that from. 01:05:57 Speaker 6: So there's another there's another interesting race that just came that just started to come in in Washington, where you had Glusenkamp Perez against Braun, who Braun is a local, I believe, is a state senator, very popular. And he is up right now about 10,000 votes. against the incumbent Marie Glusenkamp-Perez. And she's been kind of impenetrable because she's kind of a darling of the working class that is up there. But those early votes just dropped in Blue State, Washington. And remember, that was the district that our favorite guy lost twice. So that is now. 01:06:49 Speaker 6: John Braun is on a pathway to win. 01:06:54 Speaker 1: Yeah. So that's interesting. 01:06:57 Speaker 5: Yeah. 01:06:58 Speaker 6: That's interesting. 01:06:59 Speaker 5: It is interesting, kind of some of those lessons you could take from some of these weird little flips that are defying the overall move left. 01:07:07 Speaker 7: Abbott has conceded. 01:07:08 Speaker 6: I just saw that. 01:07:10 Speaker 2: I mean, not surprising. It's 67% of the votes in, and he's down by 16 points. 01:07:17 Speaker 6: Yep. 01:07:18 Speaker 5: I mean, Texas, we might look at the results and see that that's an electorate that shifted. 01:07:25 Speaker 1: Almost 20 points. 01:07:27 Speaker 2: It's not good news. 01:07:28 Speaker 7: It could be bad enough. I can't believe I'm going to say this. It could be bad enough that we decide it's not worth targeting. 01:07:34 Speaker 1: No, we're going to try and take Texas back. 01:07:36 Speaker 6: I don't think you have a choice. 01:07:38 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm just going to say categorically. 01:07:40 Speaker 6: No, math-wise, you don't have a choice. 01:07:42 Speaker 2: You have to take it back because a Republican cannot win a United States presidential election without Texas. 01:07:48 Speaker 15: Period. 01:07:49 Speaker 1: It's not technically true, but it's mostly true. 01:07:51 Speaker 2: It is true for all intents and purposes. You would need, it would mean to undo that would mean you'd have to, I'll go work on the map right now. 01:07:57 Speaker 12: It's unrealistic. 01:07:58 Speaker 2: You'd have to like flip, you'd have to, well, first of all, you'd have to get Georgia back. 01:08:01 Speaker 6: You'd have to flip Minnesota. It's unwinnable. No, it's unwinnable. And it's even unwinnable because of, you have 2028, but 2032, you're looking at, uh, a circumstance in 2032 where you're getting like four or five more house seats or four or five more, uh, electoral college seats in Texas. So Texas is even more important in 2030. 01:08:24 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to be more important. You're absolutely right. 01:08:27 Speaker 5: The question, though, for example, in 2024, I think Trump could have lost Texas and still won. 01:08:33 Speaker 2: Yeah, he could have. 01:08:35 Speaker 5: I'm just saying there are scenarios where you could still do it. I have this sort of theory that northern states are going to become more conservative over time. I could be totally wrong. Uh, but, but we'll see. 01:08:46 Speaker 2: I mean, if you want like a spooky map, that would be kind of scary. Is that like in the reality where we lose Texas, lose Arizona, lose Georgia, like let's just say total Sun Belt meltdown, those all tilt blue, then, like, we could flip Minnesota and New Jersey red, and it's actually a 269 tie with the current map, and we'd lose. 01:09:07 Speaker 7: I stand corrected. We have to win Texas. 01:09:10 Speaker 5: Yeah. 01:09:11 Speaker 2: I mean, it's 40 electoral votes now, and after the 2030 one, I mean, you might be very close to California and Texas are about the same size. 01:09:18 Speaker 3: Wow. 01:09:19 Speaker 2: So because California, I mean, with immigration cutoff and deportations and everyone moving out, California might lose five or six House seats and Texas might gain four. They'll be right on top of each other then. 01:09:33 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, it's like I mean, it's it's going to get worse because the more money that they pour into the Democrats pour into Texas, the harder it's going to be to win. That's part of the reason why this election was so important was because it's not just Texas, it's Arizona. This is why we talked about a red wall strategy was because you, you needed to prove to donors and to our, our big supporters that, you know, you can, you can hold stuff. You can keep stuff in a good place heading into 2028, right? Like that there's a strategy to work, you know, with Hispanic voters and, and to hold that. And, you know, we really wanted to push the left into, you know, doing uncomfortable things. And, now they're very comfortable right like in fact to the left they're looking today and maybe that's the one positive thing that comes out of this whole thing is that the left looks at this midterm and they're so confused because they're all arguing over like which strategy to take to try to beat us in 2028 that it's you know they're not going to take the right one but you know you've got Iowa that they slaughtered us in you've got Texas that they slaughtered us in you've got Arizona and Nevada that they slaughtered us in they've got Georgia and North Carolina and now South Carolina and, you know, potentially the future Tennessee. Like they have so many different things that they're coming at us with now that they may fight over that. But it's not good for us because we're now going to fight over scraps, you know, for the most part. 01:11:09 Speaker 5: NBC is predicting an estimated Democrat control of the House at 252 to 183. 01:11:15 Speaker 14: Wow. 01:11:15 Speaker 1: Oh, my gosh. 01:11:15 Speaker 7: That's close to 2008. 01:11:17 Speaker 6: I think they had 259 after 2008. 01:11:17 Speaker 1: Yeah, 252. 01:11:18 Speaker 2: Reminder, 218 needed for control of the House. 01:11:27 Speaker 7: Thanks for the reminder. 01:11:30 Speaker 2: They had two 57 after 2008. That was the high water. 01:11:32 Speaker 12: What is the, uh, what is the veto majority? 01:11:34 Speaker 2: Uh, it's the house. So, uh, I guess it, what is it? Two thirds to override a veto. Two wouldn't have that, but. 01:11:42 Speaker 7: Let's see how the rest of the night goes. California still got to come in guys. 01:11:46 Speaker 5: Yeah. 01:11:47 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. 01:11:47 Speaker 12: Um, But that projection includes California. 01:11:52 Speaker 8: You do 290 in the House and 67 in the Senate. 01:11:55 Speaker 2: Hey, as my friend has helpfully pointed out, if we want to find a white pill, we are like, even as bad as things are in the Senate, we're probably going to win all the closest Senate races. So we were like two points away from, yeah, we'd have 59 Democrat senators because we were just going to hang on in Florida. We'll probably just hang on in Nebraska. We might just hang on in Louisiana. We haven't talked about that one that much, but we're up like 10 in that, except there's a giant. New Orleans hasn't dropped. 01:12:24 Speaker 7: What did we say? Where's Minnesota? We said she's up, but it's not going to hold. 01:12:27 Speaker 1: I didn't think we're up in Nebraska. 01:12:30 Speaker 2: We're not up in Nebraska, but it's trending. It was really bad at the start. They dropped a super-duper anti-rickets thing, and it's just been chipping away the whole night. 01:12:38 Speaker 5: Okay, because Dan Osborne is still up 188 to 172. Yeah, but New. 01:12:42 Speaker 2: York Times has it very likely R. Betting markets say it's R. 01:12:46 Speaker 7: Can anybody tell me why they haven't called Kansas? 01:12:49 Speaker 2: Decision Desk did. I don't know why New York Times hasn't. 01:12:51 Speaker 7: Yeah, New York Times still hasn't. 01:12:52 Speaker 2: Because, yeah, they're up by seven with 93% remaining. 01:12:55 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's very weird. 01:12:56 Speaker 2: You'd need like 100% of the vote. 01:12:56 Speaker 5: I mean, New York Times has it very likely D. So, looks like Adam Hamilton, the... mega church progressive pastor who, listen, Talrico would be right at home in his church. He believes in not legislating against abortion. I think it would be maybe inexact to say he's pro-abortion, but when you support it legislatively, I don't know how else to say it. He believes that non-Christians, so if you're a Muslim or Hindu, you can die and then meet Jesus when you go to heaven and still get saved. What other crazy things? He performs LGBT weddings. So that's Adam Hamilton, and Kansas just. 01:13:39 Speaker 1: Voted for him. 01:13:40 Speaker 7: I just think the difference between Adam Hamilton and James Tallarico... Adam Hamilton, even though he believes in crazy stuff, he was very much a good politician. Spoke well. I mean, would you guys agree with me? When he would speak, he could connect with people. He was smooth. Tallarico... is a freak. I mean, Tyler, does this change our equation? 01:14:01 Speaker 6: I mean, to me, Rob sand, look at Rob sand in Iowa. He's a weird guy. Like, I mean, we're like, we've got a bunch of really weird people. Like the guy, the guy that just became governor of Brett's home state in Wisconsin, where the Milwaukee Brewers is one, the guy that just became governor dropped out of the race. He dropped out of the race and he got like, just like, stickered back in, glued back in. Susan Collins might lose to a similar guy that just gets glued back in that. 01:14:35 Speaker 7: Dropped out of a race, that lost a race. Doesn't this prove our point, Tyler, that they're not voting for the candidate, that they're. 01:14:42 Speaker 6: Just collecting ballots? Yeah, that's the whole point. The country's toast. Nobody knows who these people are. They're not even wanting to run. Wisconsin's going to be governed into the ground. 01:14:53 Speaker 1: That guy, I can... Tell you straight up, just listen to it. He is incompetent. 01:14:59 Speaker 5: By the way, a Democrat trifecta in Arizona is a very likely scenario. 01:15:04 Speaker 7: We're about to announce that in Pennsylvania as well. 01:15:07 Speaker 6: Pennsylvania, you might have that in New Hampshire. How does New Hampshire look? 01:15:12 Speaker 2: It's going to be a knife fight. There's going to be a real knife fight that you're going to have to do because one thing you could actually see some states do now Okay, if they have a damn trifecta in Arizona, they can gerrymander Arizona's seats. They can gerrymander Arizona's state seats. They can change the rules for. 01:15:28 Speaker 7: The 2028 election very easily. 01:15:31 Speaker 2: Oh, that is another thing. They could have Arizona sign up for that. They could try to abolish the Electoral College. I think our current Supreme Court would nix that. They would say it's an unconstitutional interstate compact, which you're not really supposed to make. But they might try it. They might try to just make it a popular vote election in 2028, get rid of the Electoral College. Might blow up in their face. That would be funny. That would be funny in the same way that our gerrymander might blow up in our face in Texas. It would be funny for Democrats to try to abolish the Electoral College, and it makes all the people in the major swing states get mad because their states are less important, and they get mad and they vote against them. 01:16:08 Speaker 1: That would be interesting. So here's an interesting factoid. 01:16:12 Speaker 5: So much ink was spilled, hand-wringing about the Jewish vote in Michigan. And the exit poll of early Jewish vote in Michigan has Abdul El-Sayed winning 60% of. 01:16:25 Speaker 1: The Jewish vote. Mike Rogers, 36%. That is insane to me. 01:16:30 Speaker 7: That is insane to me. 01:16:32 Speaker 2: They're left. 01:16:33 Speaker 1: Jewish voters are liberal. 01:16:34 Speaker 8: They vote for progressives all the time. 01:16:36 Speaker 2: They always do this. They hold liberal values on major political issues. And they also, most Jews oppose the Iran war as an example. So I get that it's, there's, Some of them, it's very unpleasant what they've experienced, and I think it will get more so because the country is headed in a bad way on anti-Semitism. But they've voted left at every other prompting, and I think they'll probably continue to do so because they don't like Republicans and they don't like conservative views, most of them. Not all of them, but most of them. 01:17:07 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's about 65-35. Yeah. 01:17:10 Speaker 2: And it's been that. Which is traditional. That's a traditional split. People were predicting this in 24. Over 10-7, it would be a big swing. It really didn't happen. It was other demographics that moved right. And I think they predicted it every other time. It's always one of those white whales. A lot of people are always predicting it. And it hasn't happened yet. If it didn't happen in Michigan... after this race, I don't know exactly what would prompt it. 01:17:38 Speaker 5: So just so everybody's clear, though, NBC still has it too early to call in Michigan, and the race has tightened up significantly. Abdul El-Sayed is at 50.3%, and Mike Rogers at 47.8%. It's a difference of about 40,000 votes. 01:17:57 Speaker 1: 40,000 votes. 01:17:58 Speaker 6: Yeah, so it's a difference of about 40,000 votes, but we've got to look at where the remaining vote exists. 01:18:04 Speaker 1: There's a lot outstanding. 01:18:06 Speaker 6: So there's a lot outstanding in Wayne County. Yeah. About 700,000 votes, which are going to go heavily for LSA. You know, there's, there could be a composition of enough that's out there. And, and again, you know, some of the, the, the hope that existed that was out there was that, you know, the, the black community would get behind Mike Rogers. That's what, some of the conversation was, um, same, same issue with the Jewish voters that are in Michigan. I saw something where, uh, Mike Rogers showed up to, I think it was a black church. The black church announced them. He stood up near wave. There were, kind of, you know, golf claps. And then, you know, they announced, they looked for Abdul El-Said, who wasn't there, of course, because why would he be there? And everybody starts, you know, standing ovation for El-Said, who wasn't there, who didn't even show up. So, I mean, you have the same situation. And you're looking across the state now. In Kent County, there's still about 200,000 votes that are out there. In Wayne County, you still got 700,000 votes. So, I mean, it's a long road ahead for Mike Rogers to pull it out. Could he pull it out? Potentially. 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I'd be so honored if you'd prayerfully consider joining us. 01:21:12 Speaker 2: So I want to go back to an important thing because I think we all agree the way that you make this bad result worse is if there will be people on the right who try to use this as their chance to sell out on issues they've always wanted to sell out on. Immigration as an example. So this is from the CNN exit poll. A friend just highlighted this for me, and I want to look at the rest of the exit poll as we continue tonight. But they asked in the CNN exit poll, importance of immigration enforcement to your vote and also importance of immigration policy overall to, I guess actually this is the same thing. Sorry, it's different charts. So they asked, first of all, was it a crucial or major factor in your vote? And if immigration policy was a big factor in your vote, you voted Republican, 52 to 45. And if immigration was a minor factor or not a factor in your vote, you voted Democrat, 73, 23. So actually, among people who thought immigration mattered, and it was actually overall a majority vote. 73% of voters said it was a crucial or major factor. 01:22:13 Speaker 1: It was basically the only bright spot in the exit poll. 01:22:17 Speaker 2: So it's three-quarters of the electorate thought immigration mattered, and we narrowly won those. 01:22:21 Speaker 1: And then. 01:22:22 Speaker 2: A quarter of the electorate said immigration wasn't a big deal to them, and they voted Democrat by, like, Assad numbers. 01:22:27 Speaker 1: Yeah. Like, yeah. 01:22:29 Speaker 12: By. 01:22:31 Speaker 7: Did you say by Assad numbers? 01:22:33 Speaker 2: Yeah, Bashar Assad. 01:22:35 Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah. 01:22:36 Speaker 1: Like Maduro-type numbers. 01:22:37 Speaker 12: Yeah, exactly. 01:22:38 Speaker 2: Maduro numbers. Among the people who said it didn't matter. So I want to emphasize this again. 01:22:42 Speaker 5: Immigration is a winner. 01:22:44 Speaker 2: Immigration is a winner. The people who voted Democrat, who made this a big year for Democrats, are people who said... Immigration policy doesn't matter to me this election. 01:22:53 Speaker 8: Well, and so, Blake, I want you to make sure that we drive this point home for a lot of people that are watching because I've already seen, and obviously when we were on with Piers, he brought it up, but I've already seen a lot of the neocons out there trying to. 01:23:07 Speaker 12: Make this argument. 01:23:08 Speaker 2: Oh, this is immigration. It's not the war. 01:23:10 Speaker 12: It's immigration. 01:23:10 Speaker 2: It's not the war. In fact, I'm going to build it up, the whole four layer. 01:23:13 Speaker 12: You're seeing it as well. 01:23:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sorry. If you said crucial, if you were maximum 10 out of 10, Immigration mattered to me. We won them 58 to 40. Yeah. If you said it was major 50, 47, and then it's like not a factor at all. 7%, 78, 18 for Democrats. 01:23:28 Speaker 1: The issue with immigration that drives me. 01:23:30 Speaker 5: Nuts is it's huge and it's powerful and it's visceral when you see caravans coming over the border. And then once you clean it up, we saw this in Trump 1.0, by the way, in 2020, once you like deal with the immigration issue, it falls off the front page. 01:23:48 Speaker 1: And then people forget about it instantly. Crime. 01:23:50 Speaker 5: Same way with crime. He's tackling crime brilliantly. He deserves massive, massive high numbers on it. It falls off the front page, though. So when you're not seeing brand new headlines saying crime is on the rise, violent murders are shooting up and skyrocketing, when you're not seeing that, people don't vote about it. So it's a lesson that we have to internalize. Once you tackle one of these existential problems, you then have to work down the list and make sure you're messaging on those because people forget about them. 01:24:19 Speaker 1: You don't get rewarded for them. That's what's wild. 01:24:23 Speaker 12: But that's our system, right? 01:24:25 Speaker 8: People don't have those long memories. And so it's what's affecting me now is what becomes most crucial and most critical. So if you don't have those optics of the massive caravans But what you do have is that every time you go fill up your gas tank, that the gas costs too much, then that's what you're going to be thinking about. And you're thinking about, why is my gas costing too much? You're not going to be thinking about immigration. You're going to be thinking about Iran. You're going to be thinking about all these wars, the foreign money. 01:24:56 Speaker 12: That's where you're going to go. 01:24:57 Speaker 2: I got it. 01:24:59 Speaker 8: So just to put the bow on what you were saying, it's for people who cared about these major issues– Immigration was way down the list. And for the people who said immigration was their top issue, Republicans won them. 01:25:14 Speaker 1: Yeah, easily. 01:25:15 Speaker 2: And then now I just got the I've been looking around. I got the Iran war chunk of this. So same exit poll. I think this is CNN and importance of Iran war to your vote. If you say it was a crucial or major factor in your vote, the Iran war, which 74 percent of people did. Democrats win 62 to 35. The people who say the war was not a factor in their vote. Republicans, 70, 27. So again, we're getting like Assad numbers on each side. If you say the Iran war is not a big deal to me, you vote Republican. If you say the Iran war is a big deal to me, you're voting Democrat. Big time. 01:25:48 Speaker 8: Right, but the question is which share of the voters is which? 01:25:52 Speaker 2: What do you mean by that? 01:25:54 Speaker 8: So for the people who said that it was the highest, how many of those people were voting out of the overall electorate? 01:26:00 Speaker 2: 74% of the respondents in this exit poll said it was crucial or major for their vote. 01:26:04 Speaker 12: So there you go. 01:26:04 Speaker 7: So. 01:26:05 Speaker 1: And then 26%. 01:26:07 Speaker 5: This reminds me of when I went on Ross Douthat's podcast when he was still with the New York Times. 01:26:12 Speaker 12: I always say Dohat. 01:26:13 Speaker 6: Is it Douthat? 01:26:15 Speaker 1: Douthat. 01:26:16 Speaker 2: I always said Douthat. I could be way wrong. 01:26:19 Speaker 1: I always told Charlie, I was like, you're so lucky your name's Kirk. Charlie Kirk. 01:26:22 Speaker 7: What a great, easy name. 01:26:24 Speaker 1: Nobody argues about how. 01:26:25 Speaker 2: To say your name. 01:26:27 Speaker 12: The reason I mention it is because. 01:26:28 Speaker 1: Zobiac. Dave Smith mispronounced your name. 01:26:31 Speaker 8: That actually is kind of closer to the Polish way, so I'm not too upset about it. When El Saeed went on his show, well, he does 60 Minutes as well. 01:26:44 Speaker 12: It's not the podcast, but when he does 60 Minutes, And he. 01:26:47 Speaker 8: Was criticizing conservatives about how we talk about low fertility rates but then do nothing for child care. I was like, the guy's got a great point. Got a great point. And he was making all of these, again, just landing these populist blows. 01:27:02 Speaker 5: So I get really passionate about this. It's like, listen, I think we should absolutely say, hey, if you're going to have a big family, we're going. 01:27:09 Speaker 1: To cut the hell out of your taxes. 01:27:12 Speaker 5: People hate that idea because they think of the welfare queen as, living in the projects. I think of a suburban family that is struggling to make ends meet, but they have four beautiful kids and they take them to soccer practice. And how do you encourage more of those good behaviors, those good outcomes, discourage some of the bad outcomes? 01:27:33 Speaker 1: I don't know if you can do it, but I love talking. 01:27:35 Speaker 5: About this stuff because we need to incentivize positive outcomes, family formation, marriage, those types of things. And I think you're going to win a lot of voters. Oh, by the way, NBC News just changed their estimated Democrat House seats to 255 to 180. So it went up three. Man. 01:27:54 Speaker 1: So, yeah. 01:27:55 Speaker 6: Yeah, I just saw it. 255. 01:27:58 Speaker 5: Yeah. 01:27:59 Speaker 7: What was the two-thirds number again? 01:28:00 Speaker 5: 51. 01:28:00 Speaker 6: They're not hitting 290. They're not hitting 290. 01:28:02 Speaker 14: I mean.... 01:28:06 Speaker 1: Yeah, the State of the Union is going to be lit. 01:28:09 Speaker 7: That's going to be a room you don't want to walk into as a Republican. 01:28:13 Speaker 1: Brett, are you seeing anything else, Mr. Brightspot? Brett, are you seeing any other bright spots? 01:28:18 Speaker 13: Oh, I'm trying, guys. I got some bad news, if we want to share that real quick. 01:28:24 Speaker 12: Yeah, go ahead. 01:28:25 Speaker 1: Speak the truth. 01:28:27 Speaker 13: Yeah, so a blast from the past named Paul Ryan. His former congressional district in Wisconsin, Congressional District 1, which takes up the whole southeast portion of the state of wisconsin it looks like, and I'm hoping and praying that this isn't true, it's looking like Brian Stile, the guy who took over right after Paul Ryan retired, is probably going to lose that seat. He's down by about 5,000 votes, and the most amount of votes left to count is out of his portion of Milwaukee County, which he was given during redistricting. So I mean, it's kind of along the same lines as Susan Collins, a big legacy congressional district that we might lose again tonight. Ryan Stiles, by far, one of the most moderate members of the U.S. 01:29:09 Speaker 1: Congress. 01:29:10 Speaker 14: So I'm shocked there. 01:29:11 Speaker 13: I said earlier, too, that Marianette Miller-Meeks in Iowa was in play. A big ballot dump came out of Iowa City. So she is going to lose. 01:29:19 Speaker 1: That race, too. 01:29:20 Speaker 5: So one of the storylines right now that's emerging, you see Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito trending. You know, there's a tweet here from Ron DeSantis. I can try and grab this visually for the team so people can follow along. This, I think, is spurring a lot of it. But Ron DeSantis says, Assuming Republicans lose the seats where prediction markets have the Democrats at 90% plus chance of winning, that would produce 55 Democrat Senate seats. Chance of confirming a worthy successor to Justice Thomas and or Alito during President Trump's term? 01:29:54 Speaker 2: Zero. 01:29:54 Speaker 1: Zero. 01:29:55 Speaker 5: Chance of confirming a worthy successor during a hypothetical GOP admin, 2029 to. 01:30:02 Speaker 1: 2033, probably zero. 01:30:03 Speaker 5: GOP won't be able to recapture enough seats in 2028. So the question then becomes, because when you have a loss that's this sweeping, it's going to take multiple cycles of really diligent work to get enough power back to confirm anybody good. 01:30:20 Speaker 3: It does. 01:30:20 Speaker 2: It takes a while. 01:30:21 Speaker 5: So we're really putting ourselves behind the eight ball here. The question then becomes... Doesn't Alito or Clarence Thomas look at this and say, I'm. 01:30:31 Speaker 1: Going to retire? 01:30:33 Speaker 2: I would say if Alito cares at all about being replaced by anyone remotely ideologically similar to him, he's got to do it now or he's got to be incredibly confident he's staying on the court until he's 95. 01:30:46 Speaker 8: So, Blake, I was thinking about this earlier when you made your recent... You were kind of ranting about how we got to do the judges and we should start now. 01:30:54 Speaker 2: This is a serious.... 01:30:56 Speaker 8: We know that Thomas has said a number of times in the past that he was thinking about, you know, looking at retirement. 01:31:04 Speaker 2: I know Hemingway, we asked Hemingway about Molly Hemingway and she said, it's come up. It's come up. Molly Hemingway has said, everyone who knows Thomas, all the evidence is that Thomas has maintained he's going out feet first. He is serving on the court till he dies. 01:31:17 Speaker 12: Love that. 01:31:18 Speaker 2: But we did also hear justice. 01:31:19 Speaker 5: Okay. 01:31:20 Speaker 3: Okay. 01:31:20 Speaker 4: Okay. 01:31:20 Speaker 5: Good. 01:31:21 Speaker 12: Alito. 01:31:22 Speaker 8: We know that that, that, You know, sort of trial balloon kind of went up a couple of weeks ago. Hey, maybe he's looking at it. And I'm just saying for scenario purposes, if that were to happen and if that conversation were to be made, then realistically speaking, could with the Senate that we have now in the lame duck session, do you think we could get someone through? 01:31:47 Speaker 2: I like to believe we would in the sense that as much as the Senate GOP has disappointed me on save, on immigration, on a million other things. The only thing where even the biggest rhinos have always come through and have cared is on Supreme Court seats. They came through on Kavanaugh. They came through on blocking Garland. They came through... On ramming through Coney Barrett. 01:32:16 Speaker 1: So the only issue, though. 01:32:17 Speaker 2: This would be a step up from those, I think, in that it would require them to accelerate the process. And these losers love their process. But I think they would pick that over we lose a seat on the court. 01:32:30 Speaker 7: You're saying that you think that they would like the legacy of saying that they picked a Supreme Court justice over screwing Donald Trump one more time. 01:32:41 Speaker 1: Well, here's the issue. The Dems already want to pack the Supreme Court, right? 01:32:45 Speaker 5: If you do that, then they're going to play hardball on packing. 01:32:50 Speaker 2: They're going to do it anyway. If the Democrats have the White House after 28, it almost guarantees they pack it. That said, I think we're... over 90% that they pack it at this point. If they do get a win in 28, I mean, the Democrats are just nuts. If you want to continue to look at exit polls, another number from NBC's exit poll among, uh, voters like under 30 or so, a third of them described themselves as democratic socialists and they voted 99% Democrat. So the future of the democratic party is democratic socialist DSA, which is not just support for socialism, but just more generally, uh, support for radical, burn-it-all-down energy. People who are democratic socialists fundamentally are just not people who believe in the United States Constitution. 01:33:36 Speaker 9: Right. 01:33:37 Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way. 01:33:39 Speaker 7: John Cornyn, did you guys see his statement? 01:33:41 Speaker 5: No. 01:33:42 Speaker 7: Gleeful statement. Congratulating James Tallarico. He wants to welcome him into his office to assist with the transition. That guy would never vote for any Trump appointee before his term is over these guys are they're evil they're part of the process that's. 01:33:58 Speaker 2: A white pill for me like i'm like i'm glad that that rat john cornyn even if we have to have a democrat in his place i'm just glad he is gone because he's such a vile rat he's always been that way even in 2017 we would have members of his staff i was over at fox they would tell us yeah cornyn is like lying to the public he wants to undermine trump he wants amnesty on immigration That was known a decade ago. And this sniveling rat just kept sticking around like a barnacle. I cannot be glad enough to see that rat gone. Or Tillis. Tillis, who loved to gum everything up, loved to block every appointee because he had to grandstand over something. I am incredibly glad. It stinks they're getting replaced by Democrats. I wish it wasn't that way. 01:34:43 Speaker 1: But. 01:34:44 Speaker 2: The Republican Party is better for not having parasites like John Cornyn and Tom Tillis as fake GOP senators. 01:34:51 Speaker 1: Check this out. 01:34:51 Speaker 5: So Republicans lost the Senate in 1986 going down to 45. It took them eight years to get back into a majority in 1994. The GOP went down to 49 Senate seats in 2006 and went all the way down to 41 members in 2008. It took them eight years to get a GOP majority in the upper chamber back in 2016. 01:35:12 Speaker 1: So there's those. So here's what's interesting, though. 01:35:15 Speaker 5: Republicans can get Ohio and South Carolina back in two years, right? Because it's Lindsey Graham's term and it's J.D. Vance's term, okay? So those will be, you know, pickup opportunities. But assuming that we don't have a realistic shot of regaining control of the upper chamber, the Senate, until 2032, that means that Samuel Alito will be 82 and Justice Clarence Thomas. 01:35:41 Speaker 1: Will be 84. 01:35:41 Speaker 5: Mm-hmm. 01:35:44 Speaker 2: By the way, you were citing those numbers. You want to know how bad things can get if you're a Republican in this country? Guess how many senators the GOP had after the 1936 presidential election. And there was two fewer states, so there were 96 senators. 30. 01:35:58 Speaker 15: 26. 01:35:58 Speaker 2: Jack, do you have an answer? 01:36:04 Speaker 12: Say the year again. 01:36:05 Speaker 6: 1936. 01:36:05 Speaker 2: 1936, this is FDR getting re-elected over Alf Landon. 01:36:10 Speaker 1: Yeah. 01:36:10 Speaker 8: And how many senators did the GOP have out. 01:36:12 Speaker 2: Of 96 Senate seats? Probably 30. So you said 30, you said 30. I said 26. 01:36:17 Speaker 16: 17 oh my gosh we had 17 and two of them were from north dakota that state goes. 01:36:28 Speaker 1: Hard you're always simping for north. 01:36:31 Speaker 2: Yeah the dakota's rock i i checked south dakota remains a thousand year gop uh dynasty yeah they're hanging on south dakota will not give in to the lib love my state. 01:36:43 Speaker 5: So uh brett anything else that you're seeing on the landscape looks like we lost tyler for a bit he's probably uh Listen. 01:36:50 Speaker 7: Let me tell you, I got some experience on that couch in the TP Action headquarters. It's very comfortable. I'm surprised Tyler didn't fall asleep. 01:36:59 Speaker 14: We're waiting on Nevada results. 01:37:01 Speaker 13: Those should be coming in any second. Keep an eye on a couple key congressional races. David Flippo up towards Reno, Carson City. Marty O'Donnell, he's most notable for writing the Halo score. He's a famous composer, a Republican candidate for Congress in the Vegas area. And then obviously Joe Lombardo for governor. So we're keeping an eye on that. One of our TP Action endorsed candidates for Congress in Michigan, Tom Barrett, really good dude, super conservative. Looks like he's going to win his race. 01:37:30 Speaker 14: So that's a plus for us. 01:37:31 Speaker 13: And then on the Wisconsin front, guys, I got to tell you, thank the Lord Francesco Hong did not win that primary. That would be trending the same way right now that that El Sayed race in Michigan is. 01:37:43 Speaker 14: She would be our governor right now in Wisconsin. That is a scary thought. 01:37:47 Speaker 7: Yeah, back to Pennsylvania. Right now we've got 25 Republicans in the state Senate, 23 Democrats. There are two big undecided, that's likely, but there's two big undecided state Senate seats. They're both like within a point. And if they have a split, I mean, it's pretty much a trifecta at that point. 01:38:08 Speaker 13: You guys remember that Indiana operation that we did a couple months back where we primaried out a lot of those state senators that refused to support the 9-0 map? A couple of those Senate primary winners that we endorsed who are in pretty safe Republican seats are going to lose their elections tonight. Trevor DeVries, one of the younger guys that we were really thrilled about, It looks like he lost Dr. Brian Schmutzler, who I know came on the show once or twice. He's in the margin of error right now. That's looking like he may lose that race too. That's an R plus 11 district guys. 01:38:41 Speaker 5: Yep. 01:38:41 Speaker 14: Like this is bloodbath. 01:38:43 Speaker 1: Yeah. 01:38:44 Speaker 5: And Sherrod Brown is officially projected to win in Ohio and beating John Husted. Um, it's relatively close race. I mean, it's like, it's a two point separation, but I don't think there's enough votes out there. Uh, that's 589,000 out there. So that looks like it is, uh, that goose is cooked. Uh, Susan Collins is down by 5,000. Now it looks like Troy Jackson is putting, I mean, these people are freaks, man. Troy Jackson is a total weirdo. Um, You know, Susan Collins, that one hurts if she ends up losing that because it's still too early to call. But very rarely do you have a candidate like Susan Collins who can hold a blue state. You know, people like to attack Susan Collins. She was always there when we needed her. And she came through on judicial appointments. 01:39:42 Speaker 1: You know, she did some vote trading. 01:39:44 Speaker 5: I really hope Susan Collins holds on because Maine is a tricky state. 01:39:48 Speaker 1: To get numbers in. 01:39:50 Speaker 5: Michelle Tafoya is up six points. 01:39:53 Speaker 7: Tyler's right. 01:39:54 Speaker 5: They're holding back their vote in the Twin Cities. 01:39:56 Speaker 2: It's half the vote in and then 0% Hennepin, 0% Ramsey, which is disgusting. Why are they allowed to just never drop their votes like this? 01:40:06 Speaker 1: It's pathetic. 01:40:07 Speaker 2: Plenty of big counties have all of their votes counted. Wright County has all their votes counted. Stearns County has all their votes counted. You can't have anything out of Hennepin? 01:40:15 Speaker 7: Out of all of the uncalled Senate races... Which ones do we still feel like we have some sort of shot? 01:40:21 Speaker 1: I would say Maine, Alaska, Nebraska. 01:40:28 Speaker 7: So we're taking Michigan and Minnesota off the board? 01:40:32 Speaker 5: I was about to give a look to Michigan. I mean, they basically– the Wayne County is going to wipe that out. He's– we're at 38. 01:40:40 Speaker 13: Yeah, they're almost done counting up north. Yeah, I would say at this point we're as good as done there. 01:40:45 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's still too early to call, according to NBC. What does New York Times have it as? Let's see here. 01:40:52 Speaker 14: Yeah, New York Times hasn't called it yet either. It's got them down three. 01:40:57 Speaker 5: I will tell you, they were projecting that at plus seven earlier. 01:41:01 Speaker 15: Yeah. 01:41:06 Speaker 1: Let me see. 01:41:08 Speaker 5: Yeah, Michigan has been coming down. They're projecting that at plus three. 01:41:13 Speaker 1: D plus four. 01:41:15 Speaker 14: Yeah, yeah. 01:41:15 Speaker 13: And Wayne County guys, which is Detroit, they're only at 9% reported right now. 01:41:19 Speaker 1: Yeah, they're holding their vote back too. 01:41:21 Speaker 5: The upper Midwest, the Philly to the Chicago to the Milwaukee to the. 01:41:27 Speaker 1: Detroit, they all hold their votes back. Hennepin County. 01:41:30 Speaker 5: So I will say the night started out with El Sayed projected at like a plus 7, 7 plus. Now they have it down to plus 5.3 is where they're projecting this and a 90% likely chance of El Sayed winning. Winning that race. Again, Rodgers ran a great race, I have to say. In a different year, the results would have been very different. 01:41:54 Speaker 7: How bad did John James lose compared to Rodgers? 01:41:58 Speaker 6: That's a great question. 01:42:00 Speaker 8: That's a really great question. Obviously, we don't have the full, you know. 01:42:07 Speaker 1: John James is losing by eight points. 01:42:12 Speaker 7: And Rodgers is down by how much? 01:42:13 Speaker 1: Four, currently. So it's a four-point difference. 01:42:17 Speaker 7: Yeah, a lot of people on the ground in Michigan. I mean, that was the consensus, was that Rodgers had run a very good race, especially compared to John James. 01:42:27 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, shoot, man. 01:42:31 Speaker 8: We've got to think, too, that Rodgers also had– remember, Rodgers had a lot of baggage from his previous races, too. And and I'm just like, I feel like you're not supposed to say that, but it's just true that this guy ran a loss statewide already. And he was very much tied with the neocon wing of the party from his days on the House Intel Committee, I believe, and going all in on Russiagate. 01:43:02 Speaker 7: Trump now coming out against Abbott. If Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas, hadn't become a rhino. In the last six months of his political life, he wouldn't have lost. He went back to his original formula, and it wasn't pretty. 01:43:14 Speaker 5: That's not the... Yeah, I got to disagree politely there. When you see the whole map going like this, that's not what happened here. This was a nationwide rebuke of gas prices, war in Iran, of. 01:43:32 Speaker 12: Have you seen the new. 01:43:33 Speaker 1: Trump's putting out the veto hat. 01:43:35 Speaker 12: Trump just tweeted out a hat that says veto. 01:43:37 Speaker 2: In all red. 01:43:38 Speaker 7: Hold on. We do have to give credit to some trolls sometimes when they have funny tweets. This is the best one I've seen. Trump got regime change in Texas before Iran. Wow. 01:43:48 Speaker 2: That's pretty good. 01:43:50 Speaker 5: Yikes. Oh, wow. 01:43:52 Speaker 12: Oh, wow. 01:43:53 Speaker 5: Yeah, according to exit polls, 74% of voters said the Iran war was a crucial or major factor in their vote. 62% of those voters sided with the Democrats in today's election. You know, this kind of reminds me, Blake, you know, we get attacked... You saw that in the Dave Smith questioning. We get attacked as being somehow pro-war. You and me have been so consistently– Yeah, I mean he just– But here's the problem. 01:44:19 Speaker 1: Only one clip went viral. 01:44:20 Speaker 5: It was the clip from the day of the attacks where we said we're going to have President Trump's back. That's the only clip they've ever seen. No, it is not the only clip they've ever seen. 01:44:29 Speaker 2: They lie. Dave Smith is a liar. I'm going to say it. You might not say it. I will say it. Dave Smith wanted to come out. I'm going to go for my viral moment and pick a fight over something totally unrelated to what's going on today because I want to be gross. He's a rat. He's a rat who lies and he pals around with people who lie about what happened to Charlie, who will lie about what's going on in this country because they want bad things to happen to this country. 01:44:52 Speaker 5: Yeah. 01:44:52 Speaker 2: What a repulsive person. 01:44:54 Speaker 16: Yeah. 01:44:55 Speaker 8: And I think because they like to your point, they want the viral moment. 01:44:58 Speaker 14: Yeah. 01:44:58 Speaker 1: Well, exactly. 01:44:59 Speaker 2: I mean, and they want to hurt America. 01:45:00 Speaker 1: It's like shame. It's shameful. It's shameful. 01:45:02 Speaker 2: You'll go pal around with someone like they'll pal around like Nick Fuentes is going to come out and say, everyone vote for a Democrat because we want we want the party that supports amnesty to win. We want the party that's going to abolish America. trans your kids nationwide abortion on demand. Maybe Dave Smith likes that. He's libertarian, but all these people will claim to be conservative on. 01:45:20 Speaker 1: Anything and they're full of crap. 01:45:22 Speaker 5: Yeah. 01:45:23 Speaker 8: I just, and I'm like, and I still, I mean, I'm not going to be legal at the point, but I'm like, we, it was like, bro, we had this conversation already. Like I said, I supported the victory of getting a deal done because I wanted peace. And somehow that makes me like a pro-war. 01:45:38 Speaker 1: It's just disingenuous. 01:45:39 Speaker 2: Totally disingenuous. 01:45:40 Speaker 1: You've been very consistent. 01:45:41 Speaker 2: Totally disingenuous. 01:45:43 Speaker 5: But what's interesting, and I think this is a really important learning opportunity. There are some people in this audience when Blake and I would criticize the war, because we did, kind of a lot. And there are some people in this audience that would get mad at us. And you would send us emails saying, Trump is dealing with this problem. No other president had the guts to do it. Yeah, I mean, that's true. No other president had the guts to do it. But we were very aware of the fact, and there's people online like Matt Walsh that's hard to disagree with on a night like this, is that I'd rather Iran have a nuke than for us to be run by communists. And that is a sentiment that a lot of Gen Z, a lot of millennials feel very, very deeply. They wanted to focus on the domestics, not on wars in the Middle East. We had lived through that. We grew up in that. 01:46:34 Speaker 1: We were saturated in that. And we didn't want it anymore. 01:46:37 Speaker 5: We had learned so many lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan and all of the death and the treasure lost in blood and sand. And I don't think that older generations fully understand what we've been raised in and steeped in from a very early age. It's all we've known is war. It's all we've known. And so it's interesting that Dave Smith would have the gall to say that we didn't when we have taken a lot of criticisms from our own audience that's maybe over a certain age that we love and we respect and we value. But there is a generational disconnect that's happening when it comes to foreign policy. 01:47:16 Speaker 1: I saw you thinking, Cliff. 01:47:18 Speaker 7: Well, I think a lot of people would understand that not only has it been our whole lives. I mean, I'm 35. It's like we were lied into the war by Republicans. Let's remember that. And I feel like we fought so hard. 01:47:29 Speaker 15: Which were? 01:47:33 Speaker 7: I shouldn't laugh at that. I just feel like we fought so hard to reform the party towards this America first sentiment. And to me, look, this is my number one issue is foreign policy. And I think for a lot of people in our age group, it is the number one issue, which is we are tired of the lies. We're tired of not focusing on America. And I really think it's going to be tough to put this coalition back together quickly. that understands, like, you can have different opinions on when we should be at war and who we should be battling, but there's a fundamental misunderstanding from so many in Washington, D.C., about what the proper role of government is. And we finally tapped into that, and we built this coalition, and I think tonight was a huge pushback that says. 01:48:18 Speaker 1: You lost focus. 01:48:19 Speaker 7: We might have lost focus. 01:48:20 Speaker 8: There here's here's one on on this and i'm trying to again as we know that you know it's hard to get the exit polls this quickly and and get some of the cross tabs but to help us make these conversations because i want to want to want to try to inject that as much as we can and so uh cnn's voter poll just looking at the 18 to 20, 29 year old voter block had them winning going Democrat 72 to 25. So this was an exit pool that Harris, okay, put it this way. Republicans won 47% of 18 to 29 in 2024. Now that number is cut in half to 25. That number is cut in half in just two years from 47%. 01:49:07 Speaker 12: To 25%. 01:49:09 Speaker 7: Look, I don't want to always reference Charlie, but I do think that when we won the, whatever you want to call it, 18 to 25, 18 to 30, it was such, I think it was a much tougher task than I realized until tonight. I think tonight's results make me realize how much, not just Charlie, but the whole entire turning point apparatus and so many of these people I mean, my whole life, we were losing young people, right? Young people was the whole thing. It was always a given. If you were young, you were going to vote Democrat. And tonight, it was just a slap in the face of like, wow. Once again, like, how do we get that coalition back? 01:49:49 Speaker 12: So Scott Walker's got one up as well. 01:49:52 Speaker 8: He posted this out of Tufts, the Tisch College of Civic Life, that has, I believe this is today. Yeah, it was today, just 30 minutes ago. So Republicans won. with 65 plus, 51%, and that's it. 01:50:10 Speaker 1: Almost tied 45-64. Right, right, but that's the only. 01:50:14 Speaker 12: The Obama coalition... We have to say the. 01:50:16 Speaker 8: Only demographic that Republicans won age-wise was 65 plus. 01:50:20 Speaker 12: That's the only one. 01:50:22 Speaker 8: Every single other age demo voted against Republicans in this cycle. Now, 45-64 was the best after at 48, so that was close. And that if you remember, and I know, Andrew, you and I talked about this a lot. It's it's it's Xers to, you know, sort of like just just right up to Gen Y that, you know, and I'm constantly talking about these centennials, the elder millennials. I think they vote a little bit differently. And I'd love to see that broken out specifically that cusp generation. But then, boom, with millennials 30 to 44, it's 60 percent Democrat and then Zoomers 71 percent Democrat. 01:50:58 Speaker 3: Yeah. 01:51:02 Speaker 5: This needs to be a wake-up call. So for our boomers out there, we love you. But sometimes when we're telling you things about what the kids are thinking, it's not always because. 01:51:16 Speaker 1: We're trying to be hard on you guys. 01:51:17 Speaker 5: It's because we need to make sure that the generations behind us are getting the message and they're getting on board and they believe it. I want to show you something here before we wrap up tonight. And this was a blue tsunami. I think it's fair to say this was a blue tsunami. 01:51:32 Speaker 2: It's like a blue nuclear bomb. 01:51:34 Speaker 6: Yeah. 01:51:36 Speaker 1: But throw this up. 01:51:37 Speaker 2: A bloop? 01:51:37 Speaker 1: This is Matt Van Swall. We got blooped? Drop a bloop in the toilet. Matt Van Swall. I gave the graphics. 01:51:43 Speaker 5: I can put it in the, make sure you guys have this. 01:51:47 Speaker 12: I'm just tweeting that. 01:51:48 Speaker 16: Blooped. 01:51:49 Speaker 5: So this is Matt Van Swall, who's been on the show. He goes, holy crap, it really is a blue tsunami. This is horrifying. And then Hassan Piker writes back to him. We're going to put your ass in jail, everyone. Get more woke right now with about 30 exclamation points. So I think that there's a lot of voters out there that were like, hey, I'm going to teach President Trump a lesson tonight. I'm going to rebuke the war and gas prices. You have to understand when you do that, and this was my big question tonight, would enough voters in enough places understand the threat that we're up against with the radical left that they would reject it, they would hold their nose and reject it, that's the people that you're giving power to. Hasan Piker is going on social media tonight bragging about how many people are going to be arrested. And they're probably going to come for lots of your friends and people that you follow. 01:52:44 Speaker 12: And people in this room. 01:52:45 Speaker 1: People in this room. 01:52:46 Speaker 5: Even though we've done nothing wrong, we just advocate for our ideas. That's not what the radical left thinks. 01:52:51 Speaker 8: Well, and I'll just say it, and people who aren't in this room, that people who should be sitting right there And as we sit here and have those conversations and all these conversations and do the analysis and we get wrapped up in that, that the reason that Erica brought that shirt in today wasn't just so as a reminder that, of course, Charlie is with us and, of course, Charlie is watching and, of course, Charlie is telling us to get in there and work harder starting tomorrow. Because we know that's what he would always do when we were in this room four years ago today. in a similar situation, that at the same time, it is a reminder of why Charlie's not with us today. 01:53:37 Speaker 1: Well, listen, people. 01:53:39 Speaker 5: God is not done with America. I don't believe that for a second. And we said at the beginning of this evening, win, lose, or draw. We keep fighting. 01:53:51 Speaker 1: What happens if we lose? We keep fighting. 01:53:53 Speaker 5: What happens if we win? We keep fighting. And so that's... What's going to happen? We're going to keep fighting. And we know that tonight was a tough night. It was a tough night for us, too. It was a tough night to give you those results. But if we take the right lessons from this, there is always hope in the future. We have been down as a conservative movement before, and we have to get ourselves right back up off the mat. Charlie would do that. Charlie would demand everybody turn around tomorrow. Yeah, have a night. Take some time. Tomorrow night, we'll fight again. Tomorrow morning, it starts. And so anyways, tough night. There's no getting around it, no coping or hopium that. 01:54:32 Speaker 1: Will assuage that truth. We got shellacked. 01:54:36 Speaker 5: It was a blue tsunami, as predicted. So tomorrow we start fighting again. And until then, God bless you. Thank you for joining our stream tonight. Thanks, Jack, for coming. I know you traveled here. It's tradition. 01:54:50 Speaker 1: Mr. 01:54:50 Speaker 12: Maloney, first time in person, right? 01:54:52 Speaker 1: Oh, that's true. 01:54:53 Speaker 7: First time. 01:54:54 Speaker 1: It was a terrible first time. 01:54:55 Speaker 7: This will be the first and last. 01:54:58 Speaker 1: Get out of here. 01:54:58 Speaker 2: Get back to Pennsylvania. 01:55:00 Speaker 5: Brett Galiszewski, who is one of our rising stars. Brett, thank you for joining us tonight. You were Bright Star Brett. Bright Spot Brett, I should say. So thank you for that. Listen, we fight on. There is no turning back. Never surrender. Never surrender. Never surrender. God bless you guys. We'll see you tomorrow. 01:55:26 Speaker 13: For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.