Election Day Eve — Where the Race Stand From Arizona to Texas to Michigan

00:00:03 Speaker 1: My name is Charlie Kirk. I run the largest pro-American student organization in the country fighting for the future of our republic. My call is to fight evil and to proclaim truth. If the most important thing for you is just feeling good, you're going to end up miserable. But if the most important thing is doing good, you will end up purposeful. College is a scam, everybody. You got to stop sending your kids to college. You should get married as young as possible and have as many kids as possible. Go start a Turning Point USA college chapter. Go start a Turning Point USA high school chapter. Go find out how your church can get involved. Sign up and become an activist. I gave my life to the Lord in fifth grade. Most important decision I ever made in my life, and I encourage you to do the same. Here I am. 00:00:46 Speaker 2: Lord, use me. Buckle up, everybody. 00:00:49 Speaker 1: Here we go. Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show. a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals. Learn how you could protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com. That is noblegoldinvestments.com. 00:01:17 Speaker 2: All right. Welcome, everybody. It's October or November 2nd. We had the clocks change here or didn't change. They didn't change. You're getting used to these things. Yeah. We change the hour we do the show instead. It is happy eve of election day here in Phoenix, Arizona. We're at the YRefi Studios, and much to get to, and we're starting the show off right out the gate with the next governor of the great state of Arizona, State 48, Andy Biggs. Welcome to the show, sir. I appreciate you making the time. I know you are barnstorming the state. You're all over the place. I see... pictures flooding in from activists all over the place. You guys are knocking doors, getting out. You're speaking to lots of big crowds. Give us a sense of the energy on the ground in this state because it was a race that the prognosticators and the pollsters said wasn't even basically worth running. They had you down double digits until Katie Hobbs' own internal poll showed that this was a jump ball. So give us a sense of the ground energy, Mr. Biggs. 00:02:18 Speaker 3: Well, wherever we go, thanks Andrew and Blake for having me on, but wherever we go It is amazing how many people are engaged. I've never seen a ground game more electric and more broad swelling across this state. And it is a tremendous groundswell. It's amazing. And, you know, we need it, Andrew and Blake, because right now we have returned about 13,000 more ballots Republicans have than Democrats have. But the Democrats have turned out almost 50% of their electorate so far, and we've only turned out about 42% of ours. If we had turned out 50%, we'd be ahead by almost 200,000 votes today that we've got to get people out, and that's what it's all about. That's the energy we're trying to get going. 00:03:07 Speaker 2: So let's throw this 154 up. This is our latest numbers. So you'll look at it at 154. 37.9% of ballots returned are Republican ballots, okay? compared to 37.2% of the Democrats. So we're up by about 0.7%, and we're beating them in raw vote totals by about 12,500, 13,000 votes, okay? So how do you square that with what Congressman Biggs just said, our future governor? Well, we have more registered voters in this state. But here's why I'm actually pretty bullish on this, Andy, is that we can look at Election Day history in this state And we tend to dominate on election day. I'm talking to the Turning Point Action team. We're expecting between 220 and 275,000 Republicans to get to the polls on election day, which is probably about three to one versus what the Dems are going to get out. Is that kind of what you're seeing or predicting as well in your modeling? It's all going to be about turnout on day of. 00:04:13 Speaker 3: Yeah, we are. That's almost exactly where we are in our model and our internal model. When you look at it, It is, as you say, we've got a massive advantage, but here's the way to think of it. The high propensity voters, we have about 200,000 more high propensity voters that have not yet come to the polls than the Democrats do. The Democrats have used up most of their high propensity voters. We've got a lot of blue sky there. And if our voters get out like they did in 22, like they did in 24, we win this election going away. We do have a little bit of a, a concern because of the flooding that took place over the weekend. But the reality is, I believe we'll get the turnout with the help of a TP action. You got a whole host of people, our own volunteers and my team. What you're seeing is the high propensity voters are planning on voting tomorrow. And when they get there, it should be somewhere two and a half to three and a half times greater than the Democrats. And that will give us a significant victory. 00:05:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I want everybody– look, if you look on social media, if you look on the polls, they are telling you a much different story than what we're telling you right now. And that is– and it's not just with your race, Andy. It's all across the country, right? But if you look at the turnout, we're looking at live data. Throw 154 back up there. This is live data, okay, based on ballots we know have got returned. And we have the edge, and we're going into Election Day where historically we know we have the edge. So this is a win, winnable, very winnable race right now as it stands. It's all about turnout, turnout, turnout. And I want to throw this image up. This is what you guys have been spending your time doing. 151. This was actually over the weekend with Erica Kirk and the whole Turning Point Action Team. This was a Super Chase event that you showed up to, Andy. And you see all those volunteers. And then what happens is they scatter out into the neighborhood and they go knock doors. How big of a change? I mean, you've been running elections for a long time. The muscle memory that we've established in the state of Arizona after 2024 and building on that momentum in 2026, you can feel it and you can see it in the data. 00:06:27 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would just say this, you guys. I mean this when I say this. I have never seen a better ground game than what we're seeing. And So TV Action and then a whole bunch of affiliates that are helping you guys and allies. They're in neighborhoods all over the state and they're getting out and they're going out and wrapping on doors. I can tell you just in my little old legislative district, we have seen thousands of doors knocked in that district. And the result is you're going to see people coming out And the reports we're getting back are phenomenal because they're going to low propensity and high propensity voters. But these people are all motivated to vote now. And I think you're going to see a very surprising turnout to the good tomorrow. And that's why I'm so optimistic. I've been to multiple super chases where these people are going out and knocking doors. I stepped into... You guys are not going to believe this. A phone bank last week that was being run at a county GOP office. There must have been 12, 15 young men there, many of them Hispanic, many of them TP action type folks and non-TP action folks. And they were making calls. And literally, as I walked in the door, somebody had asked one of the callers to help them fill out the polls. And over the phone, you know, who should I vote for for judges? Who should I vote for for propositions? Governor, all down the ticket. And that's what we're seeing. And that's why I am super optimistic about what's going to happen tomorrow. 00:08:14 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:08:15 Speaker 4: I just want to drive this home for people who. aren't present in Arizona. You can see the energy right here at Turning Point Action. It was a hive of activity all weekend. It is this morning, too. They have a gym in Turning Point Action, and they converted that to a call area. They moved in tables and stuff to allow that to happen. And I also want to emphasize this. If you want to get involved even now, you can download the Turning Point Action app. You can make calls in this race, in other races, today, tomorrow. Push all the way through to the end. 00:08:45 Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you don't live in Arizona or New Hampshire, Nevada or anything like that. If you're in California right now, I know we have a huge California contingency. We want to get behind what Steve Hilton is doing. And you got to get that voter ID measure across the line. But pick up the phone. You pick up the turning point action app on your phone and you can start making calls for Andy Biggs right here. What was crazy. So Blake and I were actually at a Super Chase event with you, Andy. Uh, I was at another one on Saturday ago. And, but what was crazy about half the conversations we were having was the, the folks on the ground were like, Oh, don't go to this neighborhood. Don't go to this neighbor. Those are picked over. We've already hit that too much. He's like, ah, we could use a little bit of help in LD four up here. And that was, I think where the picture was. He's like, but that neighborhood's picked over that neighborhoods. We've already, you know, you don't hear that kind of language like, Oh, we've already worked that neighborhood too hard. We've already worked that neighbor. You know, the fact that there was this, this sense, like, don't, We've already hit all those doors. 00:09:40 Speaker 4: I really loved– I knocked on a door on Saturday, and they opened it, and they said, I've already– I have my plan to vote. They knew the whole script for what to say, like I'm voting on Tuesday. 00:09:50 Speaker 2: Some of these people literally were like, we know. We've heard from you already. We've got the ballots ready. We're going on Election Day. And there was a lot of people that as you said, we were beating them in the low props. We have so many high props left. Andy, final word to you. What is the action item right now? 00:10:08 Speaker 3: The action item is talk to your friends, your neighbors. Get on them. Let them know to call. Get on the TPUSA app. Make those calls. That's what it's all about because that's how we're going to win is get our friends, neighbors, and folks to the polls. And when we do, we'll turn the state completely red. 00:10:26 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. Andy Biggs, you're a good man. We have your back 100%. And we're going to vote, vote, vote. Get out to the polls for Andy Biggs. 00:10:36 Speaker 1: Okay, everybody. It is the day before game day. And the question is what are we going to do about it? We're going to talk all about the polls and about the state of the race, but all of that is largely irrelevant. The more important thing is what are you going to do? 00:10:53 Speaker 2: What are you going to do? 00:10:56 Speaker 1: And how many low propensity voters are you going to bring out to the polls? Are you going to go find a new voter by tomorrow? Are you going to go find somebody that has not yet voted? These are the questions that are in front of us. You have to find five new people and bring them to the polls tomorrow. If you're watching this right now, you are a high propensity voter by definition. Can you find five new people and bring them out to the polls? 00:11:22 Speaker 2: Can you do that? 00:11:24 Speaker 1: Can you open up your phone and text every single person that you know? You need to just empty the clip, everybody. We are collapsing here on the finish line. We're collapsing as we are running through the tape. We are sprinting towards the end. This is the whole ballgame. What we have been waiting for, what we have been planning for, what we have been waiting for. We need a surge beyond measurement. Do you know how people would give anything to be in a moment to make history? You can make history by how hard you work this next day. 00:11:55 Speaker 2: That's it. You just can't live in your own hopium universe. 00:11:58 Speaker 1: There's some things that are going good for us, some things that aren't. But if we show up, we win. Do the work. 00:12:04 Speaker 2: Ah, gives me chills. Love that. They had Sweet Dreams or Made of These, I think was the music they were playing there. All right, so the big news over the weekend was, of course, what Haley Stevens chose to do in Michigan. So let's go ahead and play that clip right here. Well, there's a couple of them. It's great. There's any options, too. 00:12:28 Speaker 5: Hey, Michigan. 00:12:29 Speaker 6: As you may have seen, our Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Abdul, said that I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away. And he's right. And that's why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the Today, I don't belong in Abdul's campaign. I do not stand with Hassan Piker, who gets trafficked on our college campuses. 00:12:57 Speaker 2: She must really, really hate Abdul El-Sayed. Well, you know what's interesting about this is that, you know, instantly, if you watched MS Now, it was this emergency PR response. Oh, it doesn't matter. Abdul El-Sayed said, oh, it doesn't matter. We care about policies, not politics, all this stuff. But if you look at MS now, you can tell it mattered. They rushed out their crisis PR, full court press, and they were saying she's terrible, she's selfish. They were bringing out people from her past saying that she has bad character. They're excommunicating her from the party. I mean, this was DEFCON 5, and it was crazy. 00:13:40 Speaker 4: What I will say is it's definitely not selfish because you just think, I mean, let's be frank. This is overall a midterm where Democrats are favored, and she's making the call. She's going against the tide that this guy is... They've all deemed him a rising star. We've talked to Halpern. If this guy wins, he plans to run for president immediately. And she's pushing back against this and saying, no, this guy's actually unacceptable. 00:14:02 Speaker 2: No, it was... I mean, we could... There's such a smattering of these. 00:14:06 Speaker 3: I mean, the. 00:14:09 Speaker 2: This is Mallory McMorrow. OK, she was the other primary candidate. And just listen to this. I mean, trying to dredge up all this old stuff. Sorry, McMorrow, state senator. 00:14:21 Speaker 7: It's good to see you. 00:14:23 Speaker 2: I am just going to begin with what the hell is going on. 00:14:25 Speaker 8: And it is just a sad, desperate attempt to be relevant when we've got a couple of days in this election left to have Haley abandon Michiganders and her constituents. 00:14:39 Speaker 9: Is deeply, deeply sad. 00:14:42 Speaker 2: Deeply, deeply sad. So sad. One of the saddest things we've ever seen. You know, what's interesting, though, about this, a lot of them said, Hayley Stevens, she's not really that popular. You can't really look at what she does now as mattering at all in that race. But I would like to remind you that the polls leading up to that primary had El-Sayed up by as many as 19. If you look at this list of polls that the New York Times had It was Zenith Research, El Sayed plus 19. SoCal Strategies, which is a Republican poll, had El Sayed plus 17. Emerson College, El Sayed 16 up. Tavern Research, El Sayed 10 up. Tolchin Research, El Sayed up 16. Well, guess what? El Sayed squeaked out that primary victory by about, let's say, 17,000 votes. A single point. 00:15:33 Speaker 1: So.... 00:15:37 Speaker 2: She has some pull in that state. And I guarantee you there is a lot of other Democrats that are probably white middle class. They're just working folks that want to take care of their neighbors. They want to be nice people that don't buy into voting for a Muslim. A lot of those are blacks. And we're going to talk to Pastor Lorenzo Sewell from Detroit, black pastor from that area, in the next hour. And we're going to get a sense of what the black community is really feeling with when it comes to El Sayed. Because this guy's a creep. And then he goes on TV and basically says, guess what? I don't think that we should care about men in women's locker rooms because everybody has a phone anyway. Literally the historically most awful answer to that question that I have ever heard. It was a pretty incredible answer. And I put this on social media this morning. I said, I just kept skipping over this clip because I thought, No way in hell did he actually say that. This has to be hyperbole. This has to be rage bait. It turns out he really said it. I have never seen a candidate as smug, as pretentious, as he has little man syndrome. I mean, I think he's like 5'6. There's no doubt. He's complaining that his parents never came to his games and that Pete Hegg says parents came to his games even though he wasn't any good. Then he goes up and throws up a bunch of bricks and air balls. 00:16:58 Speaker 4: You need to elect me because white people are why my parents didn't love me more. 00:17:03 Speaker 2: It's a closing message. The guy has so much animosity towards white America, and I think she just couldn't take it anymore. So good on Haley Stevens. Patriot. An important message from Noble Gold Investments. November 3rd. Control of Congress is on the line, and whatever happens, your savings are going to feel it. If Democrats take power, we could be looking at years of gridlock, followed by the same policies that fueled inflation before. More spending, bigger deficits, and a weaker dollar. We lived through this already. In June 2022, inflation was out of control and unchecked. Now, the national debt is over $ 40 trillion, and Washington isn't slowing down. What has gold done since 2022? 00:17:41 Speaker 10: Doubled. 00:17:41 Speaker 2: Up over 100%. That's right. You can't control what happens on election day. You can control how prepared you are. That's why so many Americans are turning to physical gold and silver. Visit noblegoldinvestments.com slash kirk. That's noblegoldinvestments.com slash kirk. And download your free wealth protection kit. Noblegoldinvestments.com slash kirk. Is your wealth protected? If not, now is the time to act. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We're joined by Ryan James Gerduski. He is a native New Yorker, a Roman Catholic, 1776 Project PAC, nationalist, populist, sub-stack, and Numbers Game podcast. All right, so we have seen this poll going around social media, and it's the final predictions from the New York Times. So your reaction to it, it didn't inspire a lot of hope, Ryan. You basically said that comparing this to other wave elections, which the polling would have you believe that it's going to be that the Democratic elector or their electorate is more Democratic than it was even in Watergate. Do you believe that to be the case? 00:18:56 Speaker 11: Well, I said the poll is the most Democratic since Watergate. If you believe the poll I had. So that was before I did the deep dive looking through it. and looking through the methodology, and they even stated in the poll that actually their numbers were even worse for Republicans, but they thought that that was crazy, so they had to water them down to make it more Republican-friendly. I looked at the poll. So first being, I'll go through a few states, right? And I discuss this on my podcast, the Numbers Game podcast. It's all this entire episode is about this poll. So let's look at Ohio. Ohio in this race, they have John Husted losing to Sherry Brown, Five, six points. One of the bigger problems I have is that in the methodology, they create a universe where the Ohio electorate is R plus one. OK, it's a Democratic year. You may believe that. In 2018, it was R plus five. in 2024 it was r plus 10 that's a I mean that's a four point swing from the 2018 numbers which is already d plus 8 9 it's like a d plus 14 year it seems very extreme Also, if you look at early voting patterns, they don't bear out. Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, not huge numbers of early turnout. Ohio is one of our better states. Three things are flagged in my eye. First, too many Democrats were sampled in the poll. Secondly, in the poll, it says that the voting block in Ohio would be 80% white. That is less white than both 2024 and 2018. Usually in these midterm elections, the electorate is whiter as younger people drop off. So that also... kind of spurs me as a big question, but this is the number one thing that I had a problem with this poll. John Husted is winning the white vote against Sherrod Brown by four points. Just two years ago, and Ohio is a great state because we have the same candidate, Sherrod Brown, running two years ago. Sherrod Brown, two years ago, lost the white vote by 13 points. 00:20:52 Speaker 12: 13. 00:20:53 Speaker 11: So we're talking about, and the entire shift of the electorate is primarily based out of more Democrats and white non-college educated whites moving double digits towards Democrats. I frankly have a very difficult time believing in it. I think there are certain narratives in the poll that are correct. I think Vivek is performing worse than Houston, but I absolutely know some internal numbers that it's much, much tighter and that Houston could still win Ohio. So I have a big problem with that. Looking at a different state in the poll, let's look at the state of Kansas. In Kansas, here's a big red flag. Huge red flag for this poll. 17% of Republicans in the state of Kansas are voting for the Democrat, according to this poll. Now, Andrew, you and I are on the same age. We have a longer history and memory than some of your listeners do. In 2012, there was a guy running in Missouri, neighboring to Kansas, named Todd Akin. Todd Akin famously said women cannot get pregnant once they are raped, which is completely factually incorrect. It sunk his entire campaign. Todd Akin in that race in 2012 with Obama top of the ticket did not lose that many Republicans as they say are going against Roger Marshall this time. And they also have the Republican for governor losing 15% of Republicans. It is virtually unheard of for that many people within a party to leave the party to vote for the opposite party this day and age. Susan Collins in 2020 did not get 20% of Democrats. Like these numbers are crazy. are way, way, way too high. I think there's a lot of self-reporting and misreporting by people identifying as Republicans. Like, yeah, I was a Republican in the sense that I voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but haven't voted for a Republican since. Therefore, you're probably not a Republican in my eyes. 00:22:38 Speaker 2: I think that's. 00:22:39 Speaker 11: Probably where a lot of this is being picked up. But lastly, in the state of Michigan, they have Abdul Saeed winning the white vote. I frankly don't believe it. I know that maybe I am a bit of a skeptic. I do not believe Abdul El-Sayed is winning the white vote, especially when you consider, once again, like Ohio, this is a state where Mike Rogers ran just two years ago. So we have some recent sample. Rogers won the white vote by nine points in Michigan. So he's going to have a double digit loss of the white voters, specifically white non-college educated voters, the group that were most misidentified in the Democratic primary in 2024, in 2026, rather. I have, I think that this, and also, Mike Rogers, who's done an immense amount of black outreach in the Democratic Party, sorry, outreach to black voters in the general election. They have his support among black voters falling by two thirds from just 2024. Once again, is all this possible? Is the Times poll possible? Absolutely. There's a lot of red flags in this poll. And my problem with pollsters is this. Yes, Republicans are not responding to pollsters. But when you are having a giant portion of the electorate missing, you cannot reweight the electorate to make sense. You just can't. There's not enough changes you could possibly make to make the electorate make sense. I think there's a big flaw in polling for that reason. Do I think it's a Democratic wave? 00:24:02 Speaker 3: Absolutely. 00:24:03 Speaker 11: Do I think Democrats are going to win? Yes. However, these numbers to me seem preposterous. 00:24:09 Speaker 4: I guess I really want you to be correct, Ryan. But let's let's still man this out, I guess. Like you pointed out, Kansas, you don't get that many Republicans going. But part of this, couldn't we just say it is a much redder state than we're used to seeing competitive? You probably have a lot of people who they might be Republican Republicans. just because they want to vote in primaries like you see a lot of people are democrats in dc for that reason it could also just be because it's such a republican state a lot of moderate a lot of left-leaning people it's the default party it's the party you join if you're like locally ambitious or sort of invested or if. 00:24:45 Speaker 2: You don't think you have a chance to win you just kind of basically you get more liberal republicans in really red states and that would be reflected in a poll like this Totally agree. 00:24:54 Speaker 11: I'm from New York. We see that in New York quite often where a lot of Republicans are Democrats. Even that being said, to have almost one in five is literally crazy. And here's the problem with the overall problem of finding the Republican. If you cannot find the registered Republican who's a registered member because they're not responding to polls, what are the chances you're finding the independent who leans Republican in every election but once again doesn't respond to polls? Because in these polls, you have most Republicans losing the independent vote by 30-something points. Now, once again, I think that Republicans are going to lose the independent vote. However, these numbers are absurdly high to lose them by. There's a few that kind of make sense. Sherrod Brown, ironically, in the Ohio poll, is winning independence by nine. That's the same number he won independence by two years ago. So it's very strange where they're seeing these massive shifts along certain categories of people and then seeing virtually no shift among other ones. That's why I have a problem with this poll. And the New York Times is a very, very good polling. But when they're saying, hey, we're having a really difficult time finding Republicans, just like the Wall Street Journal said, just like Marist said, and we're just crazy changing the weights of our polls to try to reflect what we're thinking we're seeing. I have an issue with that. Also, Their sample size of young voters is very, very large. The youth vote is very large in Florida. It's very large in Texas. There's a handful of states where the youth vote is very, very big. However, the youth vote's not big in Ohio. There's no evidence it is. There's no evidence that any of these numbers make any sense, given that they say that the under 30 vote will be 12% of the electorate. So far, which 40% of the vote's been captured already through the early vote process, it's only 6%. So you would need almost every young person to go out and vote and almost no older people for these numbers to hit. And these youth vote is really where the Democrats are making up a 50 point win margin within those certain demographics. 00:26:52 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what we've noticed that, too, in Arizona. The the youth vote we we had originally modeled it between 15 and 18 percent. We're only at six percent of the total electorate at this point. So that 18 to 29 year olds, we're just not seeing them come up. And they typically are not big Election Day people. They tend to vote a little bit later in the cycle. But, I mean, they would have to have a historic, historic Election Day turnout for these models to get anywhere near what the pollsters are predicting. So that's exactly right. 00:27:24 Speaker 11: And that's the problem with a lot of these states is they're saying this huge youth turnout. We've seen a lot of young people show up in Texas, a lot in Florida. But these are some very old states, and they're saying these very old states, they have this gigantic youth turnout relative– respective to that state. And they didn't come out of the early vote almost at all, and that's a big red flag. 00:27:43 Speaker 2: So, Ryan, when we look at Haley Stevens' late endorsement– yeah, it would have been better for her to do this like two weeks ago, three weeks ago. But when we see that endorsement– I mean that sent shockwaves across the commentariat last night. But will it actually show up? Do you think it has a potential of making that race– I guess more interesting than it already is. But I mean, the polls say it's completely out of out of balance. It's not even close. But could it could it make a difference? 00:28:10 Speaker 11: Well, if it's if it's a two point race, then absolutely. If it is the 11 point race, then no, it will not. We all we everyone in working in politics kind of knows that she's not the only Democrat congressman. I'm not voting for for sorry, voting for Mike Rogers. Hillary Schlotten has been very much like I'm not I'm not announcing who I'm voting for. She's voting for Mike Rogers. I would be stunned if her ballot had Abdul Al-Said in it. However, she's not as brave as as as as the other as as Hillary as Haley Stevens is. That is. But I don't know if that's enough. What we saw in twenty twenty five in New York City is in the primary in the Democratic primary. Andrew Cuomo winning blacks hand like a hand over fist and then losing them because they are essentially always Democratic voters in the general. Had he won them, he would have been mayor. I think we're going to see a lot of it still where a lot of black people who voted for Haley Stevens are going to end up voting for Abdul Al-Sid. 00:29:05 Speaker 2: So you think that the blacks against– the blacks that are coming out against– because there's been a lot of ink spilled about this coming out against El Said. You think that's a phantom? That's not going to happen, really? 00:29:16 Speaker 11: Even if he gets– he would have to lose– he'd have to lose a fifth of the vote, which I don't think he's going to. Let's say he gets 10– let's say he loses 10 to 12, 15 percent. That would be very bad for Abdul Al-Sid for sure. especially in this environment in this year, I don't see him losing 20%, which is needed. And Rogers has done an immense amount of outreach to them. It doesn't bear any recent history of black voters breaking that hard. 00:29:40 Speaker 2: So that one's going to be a tough race. I mean, we always knew that was going to be a tough race, but I've actually been really impressed with Mike Rogers and the race he's run. I've been surprised. So the question then is, okay, there's sort of like three scenarios. Blue tsunami, there's a sort of kind of neither team really does as well as they hope, but it's kind of a detente. And then there's a scenario where we actually do a little bit better than people suspect. Let's go through each of those outcomes. And if it's a blue tsunami, which the polls indicate that it's going to be, what are the takeaways? What is the messaging that the Republicans need to sort of focus on? What are the lessons that need to be learned from that? 00:30:24 Speaker 11: I think that it's going to be different in different states. I think that like Texas has a lot of problems, I think, partly because Greg Abbott has stayed too long at the fair. 00:30:32 Speaker 3: Right. 00:30:32 Speaker 11: I think there's a big push then to make older members retire when they're in their 70s. Had Abbott and Cornyn retired, had there been generational change in Texas, I don't think we'd be in the same situation that we're in now. It's very difficult to blame the opposite party when they've been out of power for so long and the people in charge. are in their 70s or nearing their 70s, right? And entire leadership cannot all be on Social Security. I think that's a big part of it. Secondly, I think that the conversation around that the president has had around things like renaming lakes and rivers and bodies of water, taking over Canada and Iceland, were very tone deaf to the needs of the American people at this point and the concerns over cost of living. And it is very ironic that the president, you know, really cast the Republican Party as the party of the working class. And then it seemed like it was the party of tech oligarchs. 00:31:21 Speaker 9: Right. 00:31:21 Speaker 11: We've we've given tech people at the time they are the least likable they've ever been, given them a big seat at the table, really pushing a lot of policy. And I think those are things that really the Republican Party is kind of missing in and As soon as the election ended, there's really been a refocusing on the agenda around economic needs of working class people. 00:31:41 Speaker 2: All right. So say we have a better day than expected. What would be your takeaways from something like that? 00:31:49 Speaker 11: That this map was way too red. That the last time a party flipped three double digit blue seats was 2010. That's when Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Illinois, three states that had voted for Obama, over 10 points flipped for Republicans in the following Senate election. That is the last time it's happened. It's only happened, I think, six times in 20 years, right, that they've flipped seats like this. It's very, very, very rare that political gravity still exists. And at the end of the day, people would rather vote for the party that they know and the devil that they know than the devil that they don't. And for many of these people, many of these places, that's what the Democratic Party represents. 00:32:28 Speaker 3: So. 00:32:28 Speaker 4: As you said, we'll get some takeaways. You mentioned the tone-deaf concerns around Trump and what he did. I suspect, let's say we get a bad outcome for Republicans, or even just a moderately bad one. There's clearly a lot of people who are chomping at the bit to come out and say, Trumpism is dead. 00:32:49 Speaker 2: MAGA is dead. It's all over. 00:32:52 Speaker 4: Some of them want to take it back to 2014. Some of them want to burn down the whole Republican Party. Different narratives, but they're all going to try to say that. Do you think that'll be the case? Or what do you think the position of President Trump will be within the party if we have a negative outcome tomorrow? 00:33:08 Speaker 11: Well, if the Democrats take over and they try to impeach him, he becomes a sympathetic figure again. There's a rally around the flag. So I don't know if we're going to learn any lessons, truthfully, that we should be learning. At the same exact time, I think when you've been in office or leading the party for a decade... people just get fatigued. People just get tired, right? There's a lot of exhaustion about this and they want something new and they want a fresh air. I think that there's the arguments and the conversations around corruption, around foreign policy, around Iran, and around cost of living really become heightened and your policy of Republicans start breaking from the overall narrative. A lot of times congressional Republicans have been very scared to get on the opposite side of Trump on almost any issue. I think you may see some actually starting to break with him on issues and trying to take the lead where they possibly can being the minority. 00:33:57 Speaker 2: You know, it's an interesting question. I mean, I hate to do doomsday stuff, but if it goes bad enough and they do try and impeach Trump, you know, say they get to 54, 55 seats in the Senate. I mean, I'm talking like worst case scenario here. If Democrats do, you know, could there be a scenario where you could get enough Republicans to flip over and actually convict the president in an impeachment? I mean, it's a very... I doubt it. 00:34:22 Speaker 11: Here's the problem. You're you. Who would who would who would do that in that scenario? McConnell, he's retired. Tillis, he's retired. Susan Collins had to lose in that in that scenario. Almost every wish you Cornyn is already lost. Almost Cassidy lost. Every one of these weaker Republicans is already gone. Yeah. So I find it very hard to believe that that. Maybe the guy from Utah might do it, but like there's not going to be enough because some people have already lost at that point. 00:34:49 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:34:49 Speaker 2: So the next question, the last question I'm going to ask you here is looking at this map, do you see any potential bright spots, any surprise victories, flips for Republicans? 00:35:01 Speaker 11: Iowa flips? 00:35:02 Speaker 10: No. 00:35:03 Speaker 11: I mean, there's a few House seats I think could go, which depending on which how it goes, but seven seats to know. I think bright spots for Republicans. I think Iowa is probably going to be okay for Republicans. Kansas had really good numbers for Republicans the last four or five days. Ohio, I don't think it's as a doomsday scenario as people are saying it is. I think it's fairly tighter for the Senate seat. I think Vivek's going to lose, but I think it's tighter for the Senate seat than people think. I don't know any about Collins or Alaska's kind of ground game, but I think the most important thing to emphasize from this election is we're going into it in a massive deficit in many states. Because Republicans need to get one thing to their head more than anything else. Election Day isn't Christmas. You don't have to wait for it. You could vote early. And banking all of these votes, as Democrats have, means it is much more difficult on Election Day to make sure that we win. So if we can shake it from our collective narrative that we can only vote on Election Day, that would be the best thing. Bank your vote early. It actually helps Republicans win in the long term. 00:36:02 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, we just got a report here that in Paradise Valley— which is a Republican stronghold here in Maricopa, one of the voting centers has gone offline because of power issues. So, you know... Easy way to avoid that. Vote early. Just vote early, and then you take your name off our list, and we won't harass you anymore. Yeah, you don't get annoyed. You don't have to... I feel a bit white-pilled. 00:36:24 Speaker 4: In that I was out door-knocking on Saturday, and several people were explaining, I've already got my plan to vote on Election Day, and I think some of them were a little annoyed that they were getting visited. All I could think is, You wouldn't even be popping up on that app if you already had a ballot. 00:36:39 Speaker 2: Exactly. I mean, we've we've had me personally. I've had this experience going to a door and be like, oh, we've already been knocked on before. We got a plan. We got our ballot here. It's ready to go. So, I mean, hopefully, hopefully, I mean, in Arizona, we're ahead in the early vote and we're going to historically, if if trends hold, we're going to dominate on Election Day. Then you're just wondering about how bad that Indy vote is and how many defections you get on the R's. But we're going to have more R's in the box than D's. It's just a matter of those unknowns that we can't know yet. Final thing, Texas. 00:37:12 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think Talladega is going to win. I think Republicans in Texas have made a big mistake over time. A lot, a lot, a lot of first-time young Latino voters. I think it's going to overwhelm it. And a lot of Republicans just aren't showing up. Who knows? A lot of undecideds, but I think that, I think that Talladega is going to win. 00:37:29 Speaker 2: Don't like that. It's a terrible way to end the hour. I should have left it before that. Uh, Ryan, James, you're going to ask you. Thank you so much. We'll talk to you soon, man. 00:37:36 Speaker 10: Bye. 00:37:39 Speaker 2: I want to tell you about a new movie from angel called drummer boy. And even better, I'm going to tell you how you can get two complimentary tickets to see it in theaters. Drummer boy hits theaters, November 6th. 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Again, it's a movie you are going to want to experience on the big screen. 00:38:47 Speaker 1: What happens with transgender kids on sports teams and so on, right? 00:38:51 Speaker 13: I don't know that that's actually true. I think we manufacture these social issues because here's the thing about it. You have a phone in your pocket, right? You can get access to everything and anything in the whole world, all the world's information in your pocket. The notion somehow that you are going to prevent your child from being exposed to something that you may find disagreeable and that that is going to be because of school is so profoundly outdated. And the most important thing you can do is not try... to protect a person from seeing a thing. It's about trying to make sure that as you coach your kid through the world, that you are engaging with them and saying, here's what I believe, here's what you may see in the world. You get to make your choices about who you're going to be in the world, but that's going to require us to make do with the fact that like the internet is a real thing. 00:39:38 Speaker 2: Oh, okay. So Abdul El-Sayed says, you know, We shouldn't care about men in women's locker rooms because... Because they can look up hardcore pornography on their phone. Yeah, that makes sense. Totally fine. By the way, you know, in my faith, women shouldn't show their hair to anyone. Yeah, exactly. How would you like it flipped and reversed on the Muslims there? We've got a lot to talk about when it comes to the black vote in Michigan. Here to help us unpack that is Pastor Lorenzo Sewell. He's a senior pastor at 180 Church in Detroit. Pastor, good to see you, my friend. It's been too long. Looking good as always, chipper as always. Help us understand the dynamic that's happening in with the black community, specifically when it comes to, are they gonna vote for a Muslim? Are they gonna vote for Abdul El-Sayed? What is the dynamic there? 00:40:27 Speaker 5: Abdul El-Sayed, he knows he's in trouble with black people. He knows that there are 16 majority black cities in Michigan, and there is not one black person that has not been hurt by the power of Islam. How do we know that? Because all of our essential businesses, in terms of our grocery stores, gas station, auto parts, cell phone, it is owned by Arabs. And those Arabs, they hate black people. As a matter of fact, I've never used a bathroom. Can you imagine this? 45 years old, put to a gas station, spend $ 90 on gas, and have never one day been able to use the bathroom. 00:41:03 Speaker 11: Why? 00:41:04 Speaker 5: Because they are a racist group of people. They hate black people, although it's on the backs of blacks, so they've gotten rich. That's why you have Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck, the only three majority Arab cities in the world outside of the Middle East. Abdul Al-Sayed is in trouble. That's why he brought Barack Obama. Black people will not vote for him. 00:41:22 Speaker 2: So we know some are going to vote for him, right? There's a percentage of the black community that's just going to see the D and they're going to check the box next to the D. But the question is, how many of them are going to flip? How many of them are going? I mean, what the percentage is, right? And Pew poll put out this, you know, I think it was in June. It was really interesting. I think about this graph a lot. And what it found was a plurality. Thirty five percent of black adults were part of the order and opportunity left as they categorize them, while only four percent were of the leftward progressives. 00:41:57 Speaker 13: Right. 00:41:58 Speaker 2: That is the smallest share of any of the racial or ethnic groups that Pew polled. 00:42:05 Speaker 3: Right. 00:42:05 Speaker 2: So what you see is a lot of black voters have been traditionally Democratic, but they want order and opportunity. They're more moderate in their proclivities, in their sensibilities. Is that kind of where you see the opportunity here with black voters, flipping to Mike Rogers? It's this sort of more traditional, they just want opportunity, they just want economic opportunity. They don't want to go with some far-left lunatic like El-Sayed, who's actually a socialist. 00:42:34 Speaker 5: Absolutely. I call it the Trump effect. Before President Donald Trump came to my church for his birthday weekend in 2024, people like Mike Rogers and, quite frankly, the Republican Party, they didn't see a need to go into Black communities, although Black communities represent the second largest voting bloc. You have almost 1,000 majority Black cities, but not one majority Black Republican congressional district. So it's an opportunity. And black people are beginning to see that their vote is actually their negotiation chip. They're beginning to see that their vote is their investment. So Mike Rogers can say what? The Republicans are your opportunity to have something done for you. What did President Donald Trump say? He said to black people... What can you lose? And that's exactly what black people are feeling. But people like Abdul Hassan, they feel like we've lost enough. It's been literally 60 years. Can you imagine this of broken promises? Now we need somebody like Mike Rogers to step in and be able to do what the Democrats, quite frankly, never have done for black people. 00:43:36 Speaker 2: Well, this is my like my my theory. And I don't know that it's fully baked yet in the sense that I don't know that black voters have fully internalized this. But there is a growing discontent that I have perceived from black voters, and maybe you could shed some light on this, that they feel like they've been replaced and left behind by newer imports within the Democrat coalition. That you're playing second fiddle now to Muslims, to Somalis, to whatever group that has been brought in in the last 20 years. And I'm wondering, is that discontent starting to really bubble to the surface? The further we get away from the 1960s, is that freedom to choose and to think outside the Democrat box, is it growing? Can you actually feel it in the streets, in the conversations of the barbershops? 00:44:26 Speaker 5: I mean, you can see it. I mean, in my church, we have people come to my church who get John James signs. They come and get Mike Rogers signs. Before President Trump came to my church, before I prayed at the inauguration, preached at the RNC, black people, they didn't feel comfortable. But our argument has always been this. Look at the largest majority voting blocs in each respective state, whether you look at Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia. When you look at these states, even when you look at a place like Maryland, what do we see? We see that these are the places that have the largest voting blocs that are black. And we understand that those black people never get the contracts, the grants, the loans, because they're democratically led. So Republicans have been messaging to Black people, here's your opportunity to come and work with the Republican Party so that you can get the resources that you should get. And we believe that we are not entitled to the lion's share because this is a majority white Christian country. and which is the greatest country of all time. We believe that we should get our fair share. And now black Republicans are feeling like I can come out of my conservative cave, so to speak, because I'm supported by people like the Charlie Kirk show, by people like me, by people like our president that are willing to support those new black conservatives. 00:45:39 Speaker 2: How much is the Haley Stevens endorsement going to play with black voters? 00:45:44 Speaker 5: Well, it's great for optics, but black people aren't going to vote for Mike Rogers because of Haley Stevens. Haley Stevens did a great job. I think her political career is now resurrected as it relates to the president inviting her to be a part of the MAGA movement. I believe it does great for Jewish people. But in terms of black people voting for Mike Rogers, they're going to vote for Mike Rogers because the president endorsed him. Haley Stevens, is that a good thing that she did that? Obviously, that she loves now her own people standing up for Jewish people and that she is willing to actually help black people stop the greatest genocide that has happened against black people as it relates to abortion. So, yes, she did a great thing in terms of her integrity and her own political career. 00:46:22 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I hope that I hope that it is resonating loudly around Michigan. You know, the polls, Lorenzo, have passed. They have. Mike Rogers way down. New York Times says he's down 11 points or something like that. But it's good to remember that the polls also had Haley Stevens down 16, 19 points and she lost by one point. So if we can recreate that situation, then he's going to win by four. All right. Tell us your prediction of how this is going to go on Election Day. You think Mike Rogers has a chance? 00:46:53 Speaker 12: Absolutely. 00:46:54 Speaker 5: I believe Mike Rogers is in the places that typically Republicans didn't go because of Trump. He's stepped in the churches. I mean, think about it. Before President Trump came to Detroit, a Republican hadn't been there since Reagan. Now, since he's come to Detroit, Republicans feel comfortable being able to court the black vote. 00:47:10 Speaker 2: Well, I hope you were right, Pastor. You know, the Washington Post had an interesting poll where it was basically, you know, something like 83 percent of blacks in Michigan want a Democrat controlled Senate, but only about 67 percent of them are planning on voting for El-Sayed. That softness there. could mean the difference between a Republican senator and a Democrat senator in the state of Michigan. So we hope you are right when we pray and we petition the Lord that you are right and that we don't let this Trojan horse into the United States Senate. We don't let somebody that hates this country, hates white people, hates Jewish people, into the United States Senate. So God bless you, sir. I'm sure you're going to be doing souls for the polls and all that stuff tomorrow. So go with God, be fruitful, multiply, all the things. And, you know, vote Mike Rogers. Thank you, Pastor. God bless you. 00:48:02 Speaker 9: Thank you so much for having me. God bless you. 00:48:06 Speaker 2: We want to go through with you a little primer on the Turning Point Action app, okay? So to get it, you just go to tpaction.com app, and it will guide you to downloading it either on the Apple Store or on the Google Play Store, whichever you prefer, whatever phone system that you have. And then you open it up, and then you see this. This is the first screen that you see, okay? It's basically a bunch of boxes with, like, social media content. But if you look up in that upper left-hand corner, there is an arrow. There's, like, a couple arrows. Three arrows, to be exact, and a little tab. What you do is you push that tab, and it will launch this next screen, which comes up right there. 00:48:53 Speaker 1: Yes. 00:48:53 Speaker 2: Yes. So you hit that arrow, those three arrows, and it opens up and it gives you all these options. Make calls, chase ballots, attend a Super Chase event. So if you do make calls, you can do MAHA, Iowa calls, Biggs Latino Coalition calls, LD3 in Arizona, LD4, LD11, LD13. So it's got this whole list. You've got Nevada, New Hampshire, all these things, Wisconsin III, So multiple different areas where it will automatically guide you to make calls. You can send texts. And then it also has the freedom ticket. So you can find out who we recommend voting for up and down the ballot in those areas. So it doesn't matter where you live. You can take advantage of the Turning Point Action app to get the vote out, do what you need to do. It's a really, really easy app to use. Blake, you've been using it now for voting month. Any tips, tricks, things that kind of confuse you that you want to make sure are clear for the audience? Well, it could definitely... We'll work on this, of course, for 20. 00:49:59 Speaker 4: You can definitely have issues where like you populate if you're going to go door knock, for example, and make sure you're in the right areas and all that. But it is just a very flexible thing. Some of this, of course, is obsolete. You're like registered to vote. It's too late in Arizona to register. It's too late in a lot of states, which is a good thing. You don't want too much day of registration. But even now, even now, we want to drive this home. If you've been sitting out this election until now, you can come back in. 00:50:23 Speaker 2: You can vote. still make calls, send text messages on the day of. 00:50:28 Speaker 4: Got to make sure all those people who say, I'm definitely voting on election day, actually definitely vote on election day. 00:50:33 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's the thing. So, and one of the things when you're doing the walk maps, if you are going to go door to door, for example, you open it up, voters near you, and it assigns you, basically. So, say you're with two people and you both have the app, it's going to give both people different houses to hit, right? Because it's assigning... specific houses to you so that they're not duplicated. So that, that actually, cause I went, went out with Ryan and, and we both had different houses. It was good. Cause then when we hit one of my houses and we hit his house and vice versa, back and forth. But it took me a second to realize that that was what was happening. Cause it actually gives you specific names and you sort of become the owner of them. 00:51:14 Speaker 11: Right? 00:51:14 Speaker 2: So definitely, definitely take advantage of the turning point action app. We put a lot of resources and thought and time and energy into that and populated with all the data and it updates everything. So the data is continuously updating as ballots come in. So it should be as up to date as possible. Now, sometimes it takes a little while for the secretary of state to turn around those ballots and then for us to update our system. So there might be some lag. But generally speaking, it's it's accurate. So you heard what Andy Biggs said. We have more ballots out there in Arizona. But they have returned a higher percentage of this. So we're at 42% of ballots returned. They're at 50% of ballots returned. We're still beating them in overall ballots, but we need to beat them by more. And here's why. Because we don't know the independent vote. So on a good year for Republicans, we end up winning the independent vote in Arizona, for example, 55-45. Maybe in some areas, 60-40. On a bad year, those numbers are inverted. Okay? So they might be winning 55% of the Indy votes. They might be winning 60% of the Indy votes. which means we have to lean into our base support. We have a 300,000 voter registration advantage in the state of Arizona. So that means we need more of our base to come out. So right now we're up on them by about, let's say, 12,000 ballots. We know that we're going to beat them on day of three to one. OK, 2.5 to three to one. All right. So we need that number to be three or 3.5. And then that factors in any independents that we lose and any detractors. Ours is flipping their votes for Democrats. So we need a huge, huge day of turnouts. We need a huge day of turnout in Arizona. We need a huge day of turnout in Texas. So if you're listening to this in Texas, we need you to get out. We need you to get out big. 00:53:01 Speaker 4: We've heard, we've encountered you guys who say, I only vote on election day. You're still concerned about mailing in your ballot, voting early. We understand all of that, but that means the burden is very much on you. Get your vote in tomorrow. Every vote is going to count. Listen, here's another reason why this matters. Because if you telegraph your vote to the Democrats that you're voting day of, guess what happens on day of? 00:53:27 Speaker 2: We have power outages. There is literally right now a concern in the, I would say, Ohio kind of Pennsylvania corridor of power rolling blackouts on election day. That's a legitimate concern right now. There is a voting center in Paradise Valley. that has been temporarily closed due to power issues. You never know what's going to happen on election day, and they know that we crush on election day. So guess what? We tend to have problems on election day. Shenanigans tend to happen on election day. So this is yet another reason why banking your vote early is very, very helpful. So we've got to have a huge day on election day across the country. Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Texas, Florida. There are so many states that we can win And we can turn what they think is going to be a blue tsunami into either a blue trickle or a red trickle. I'm not as bullish as one of the options being a red tsunami. I don't think that's really in the cards this year. 00:54:27 Speaker 4: Look, I just want to lay it on thick because we say it over and over, but we have to get this through. Everything about this election is a turnout election. Everything about this is an enthusiasm election. If we lose tomorrow, it is not going to be because... all of these voters switched from Republican to Democrat. There will be voters who do that, but categorically, both parties are going to have far lower turnout than they did in 2024. Both parties will have much lower turnout. The winner is just who loses fewer. And so, if you are blowing off this election because you think it just doesn't matter that much, you only really care about voting for Trump, you just. 00:55:06 Speaker 2: You just didn't feel like it. You felt tired. You felt sick. You have a candy hangover from Halloween. You are part of the. 00:55:13 Speaker 4: You're just part of those people who aren't turning out. And the Democrats are working very hard to get their people worked up into a frenzy. That is how the left does it. They get them in a frenzy. They make every single election the absolute end of the world. And it's secular church for them. You go to church by voting in their election. 00:55:33 Speaker 2: We have to care... at least as much as them. 00:55:35 Speaker 4: And that's how we'll get wins in these races where that's how you actually upset the polls, which we're capable of doing. 00:55:41 Speaker 2: Yeah, and everybody here by definition that is listening to this broadcast is probably a high propensity voter, meaning we don't have to worry about your ballots getting in. Maybe some of you have yet to do it, and if that's you, fix it, get out on election day. But every one of you It needs to be a force multiplier. You need to take your energy. You need to take your activism. You need to take your political knowledge and turn it into actual action, which is why you need to download the app. tpaction.com slash app. tpaction.com slash app. Make calls. Send texts. Do what you can right now in the races that matter most. You might just get Andy Biggs elected. You might just get Sununu elected in New Hampshire. I talk about jobs and industries on this show all the time, but I didn't expect to find an entire skills trade community on TikTok. Plumbers, electricians, builders, and contractors sharing the work they do every day. And it went way beyond tips and tricks. People were sharing their craft, connecting with local contractors, and talking about how they were building their businesses and growing their teams. It opened my eyes to how people in the trades are using TikTok to share their skills, make connections, and find new opportunities. I remember thinking... This is exactly what we need more of, people sharing what they know and creating opportunities for others. And I never expected to find a community like this that's the thing about TikTok. You start with something you know, and suddenly you're finding a whole new side of it that surprises you and leaves you wanting to know more. Your next discovery is waiting for you on TikTok. Learn more at TikTok.com slash discover more. Ari Fleischer, Fleischer Communications, former White House press secretary. And I should say this out front, Ari. You are working on the Michigan race, but that's why I wanted you here. Because this was a bombshell heard around the political world. The question is, with Haley Stevens obviously endorsing Mike Rogers yesterday, the question is, will it matter? And I want to throw up this New York Times poll because we just have to be fair. 150, throw up 150. This is the, you know, I think one of the New York Times elite journalists put this up. These are sort of the final prediction. Right there you'll see 53% El-Sayed to 42% Rodgers. That's a heck of a chasm. So what do you make of it? And does the Haley Stevens endorsement, is it going to move the needle? 00:58:07 Speaker 10: Yeah, it reminds me of the poll that showed Wisconsin was going to go 18 points for Kamala Harris. 00:58:14 Speaker 9: I mean, there's something going on. 00:58:16 Speaker 10: With the polls this cycle, and either you believe them, they certainly have been good news and put wind in the sails behind the Democrats, or you realize that a lot of Republicans have just not shown any interest in talking to pollsters or hitting on their phone who they're voting for. 00:58:30 Speaker 9: I think it's much more of the latter. I do not see a gigantic blue wave coming. 00:58:35 Speaker 10: And I'll also tell you this right now, Andrew, Mike Rogers is going to win in Michigan. I have felt that for a considerable amount of time. I continue to feel that. I felt that before Haley Stevens gave Mike the endorsement. So I just scratch my head when I see those polls and I pay more attention to what I feel is going on on the ground. 00:58:55 Speaker 2: I mean, the reason I take that pretty with a lot of gravity when you say it is because you're a person with a very large public presence. You're a known political commodity. And for you to put your name behind something like that, that means if it doesn't happen on the next day you're gonna have to answer and so i put a lot of i put a lot of weight in what you just said and i i mean what was interesting though about the hayley stevens endorsement is they were on the one hand saying it doesn't matter nobody listens to her She doesn't have much of a following in that state. You know, Abdul was like, I'm not going to answer questions. You're talking about people that aren't here at the podium with me. I only care about policy. And then, then you hear clips like this from James Carver. I mean, the most bitter reaction to this endorsement. And I think it's a tell play clip 13. I put a core is over. 00:59:50 Speaker 14: You, if you think, that these Republicans are going to treat you as anything other than what they view you as, and that is, let me just break the news to you, a used condom. The Democrats don't even think you're worth a used condom, but that's about where you are. You made your bed, sleep in it. 01:00:11 Speaker 2: Just great people. Just really solid, salt of the earth people over there on the Democrat Party. And listen, I know Carville's a dinosaur, but he's somebody you've had to interact with over the years. I mean, but their reaction, it was a pure meltdown mode, crisis PR mode, but then we're told it doesn't matter. So what is the truth? 01:00:30 Speaker 10: Well, first and foremost, I've known James for more than 30 years, and I'm so disappointed he would stoop to that level to say that. It's one thing for him to be vociferous, to be upset, but to resort to that type of. 01:00:40 Speaker 9: Language, it's disgusting. 01:00:43 Speaker 10: Look, here's why Haley Stevens' endorsement is important in a world in which endorsements typically don't mean a thing. Most voters vote on the basis of their own thoughts, and they don't need anybody else to tell them what to do. It's different in Michigan in that there's a very small undecided, and it's about 4% to 6% of the voters in Michigan. And most of those voters are very anti-Trump. And so what they're weighing is, I've been a Democrat my whole life. 01:01:09 Speaker 9: I don't like Abdul. I don't trust Abdul. 01:01:11 Speaker 10: But I can't vote for a Republican. I can't vote for somebody who would be a vote for Donald Trump. That's who this group is. So when Haley Stevens comes out and endorses Mike Rogers, she's the type of person who gives permission to that undecided Democrat anti-Trump group to vote for Mike Rogers because Haley Stevens did it. And Haley Stevens also got 49% of the vote in the Democrat primary against Abdul. So she does have a following in Michigan. And that's why it can matter. But look, like I said to you, even without this, I believe that Mike Rogers was going to win. And that's just because there's just a group of people who are never going to vote for Abdul. He's a bridge too far for a variety of reasons, for a variety of people. He is a bridge too far, and I never thought it was going to. 01:02:03 Speaker 9: Happen for him. 01:02:04 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking at polling in Michigan last few cycles because in 2024, it was a two-point miss in the polls in Trump's favor. In 2020, it was a over two-point miss in the polls where it was showing, you know, It still had Biden won or won, however you want to just interpret it, but it looked much uglier. 2016, two and a half, almost three points in the polls. And I'm looking in the 2026 average. 01:02:30 Speaker 2: There's a variety. 01:02:31 Speaker 4: That big 11-point poll is the big outlier here. But if you have multi-way, so if you include Libertarian and all of that, El Sayed, on average, up 2.7%. So you'd need just a slightly bigger miss than we had in 24 or 20. And I also checked the 24th Senate. That was also a two, two and a half point miss in Republicans' favor. So you don't need a huge miss for this suddenly to be a race that Rodgers can win. 01:02:57 Speaker 2: That's a great point. And don't forget that the average polling had El Sayed up 16 points over Haley Stevens in the primary, only won by one point. 01:03:06 Speaker 13: There you go. 01:03:07 Speaker 2: I was about to get that point. are just less likely to be reflected in the polling. I don't know what the reason is. Here's another breaking piece of news here. Hanson Clark and Choi Clark, they are Democrats, right? Former Rep. Hanson Clark supports Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed. I believe we have this 164, if you want to throw this up. Looks like him and his wife, or maybe they're just colleagues. I'm not exactly sure. But they just posted this on social media as the show's been going, that they are voting for Mike Rogers. So that's another... that adds to this growing narrative. And I think you're right. If somebody's just like, I don't know if I could vote for a Muslim. That sounds racist if you said something like that on MSNOW or CNN. But it's just real. It's just real. This is a Christian country, historically been a Christian country. People in the he's just been so god awful about the way he answers these questions and so smug. And you've got to believe this guy actually really does harbor animosity towards Pete Hegg says white parents for showing up to his games. He harbors animosity for normal Americana. And it just I think a lot of people are feeling that sense of unease. 01:04:21 Speaker 13: All right. 01:04:21 Speaker 10: And to put a point on it, you made the you remarked about the Democratic primary polls in the. 01:04:26 Speaker 9: Race between Saeed and Haley Stevens. And how those polls dramatically, by. 01:04:31 Speaker 10: Double digits, overinflated Abdul's lead, and he only won by one percentage point. What I think happens inside the Democratic Party, which is such a party that is in tune with identity politics and racial politics and the importance of saying things that are racially pleasing, chromosomally pleasing. This is kind of what the Democrats define themselves as. I think a lot of Democrats, when they're on the phone with a pollster or even just entering a digit in their phone to talk to the Internet as part of a poll, they cannot bring themselves to say, I'm against Abdul El-Sayed. So they tell the pollster, I'm for Abdul, because it's expected to be that way based on identity politics inside the Democratic Party. 01:05:15 Speaker 9: But they're lying. 01:05:16 Speaker 10: They know they're going to vote against Abdul. And it's not just because he's a Muslim. I think that's a side issue, frankly. The real issue is he's an extremist. 01:05:24 Speaker 3: It's his positions. 01:05:26 Speaker 9: It's the fact that he describes Israel as bloodthirsty. Who uses that word? 01:05:30 Speaker 10: It's the fact that he won't even acknowledge that Israel has a right to exist. It's the fact that he won't say Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state. So if you're a Jewish voter in Michigan and identity politics and care and compassion, all that is part of who you are. You've never voted Republican before. Yeah, you lie to the pollsters. because it's expected of you. And you know why you're doing it. It's because Abdul is an extremist. 01:05:55 Speaker 2: Well, and you also have this issue with the black vote. I mean, this is a recurring theme with him. It's yet to be seen. I mean, I sometimes, I'm going to mix some analogies here. It kind of feels like the black vote is the great white whale, right? It is, every time. We think we're finally chipping away, and then they kind of They stay, you know, with the Democrat Party. But this does seem to be real. And you've got some voices out front that are saying it pretty loud. Sat 9. 01:06:23 Speaker 7: There is still bitterness about 2024 when they believe El-Sayed and other Arab Americans didn't do enough to support Kamala Harris. Mary Waters, a Democratic member of the Detroit City Council, has pointedly not endorsed El-Sayed. 01:06:37 Speaker 12: So some Detroiters have said, listen, if Kamala Harris walked down the street holding his hand, I still would not vote for him. Now, will she and President Obama be able to sway a few Detroiters? 01:06:53 Speaker 3: Sure. 01:06:53 Speaker 12: But not you. I can think for myself. 01:06:59 Speaker 2: All right, Fleischer. 01:07:01 Speaker 10: Don't forget, John McCain got 4% of the Black vote when he ran for president. 01:07:05 Speaker 9: Mitt Romney got 6% of the Black vote. 01:07:08 Speaker 10: Donald Trump, the man the Democrats love to call a racist, got 16% of the black vote, four times what John McCain got. Donald Trump got 25% of black men in the 24 election. So the black vote is on the move, but particularly in Michigan, there's been a history of strife between the Arab and the black community in Detroit, and Mike Rogers. 01:07:28 Speaker 9: Is working hard. 01:07:29 Speaker 2: What is that history of strife? Final minute here, Ari. 01:07:33 Speaker 9: It's very neighborhood-oriented. 01:07:35 Speaker 10: It's the fact that a lot of the stores that people shop in in African-American communities. 01:07:40 Speaker 9: are owned by Arabs. 01:07:42 Speaker 10: And there's just a hostility between the black community and the Arab community that's very street level. 01:07:48 Speaker 9: It's rudeness. 01:07:49 Speaker 10: It's the way people are treated is what you would hear from the black community. It's people who work behind plexiglass and bulletproof glass because they don't trust their customers. There's just this very street level reality of what happens when two different cultures live so close to each other. 01:08:07 Speaker 2: I asked you that because we just had Pastor Lorenzo Sewell in Detroit on the show, and he said the exact same thing. He said it's the bodegas, it's the corner stores. That's an interesting dynamic that is almost impossible to pull. Blake, to you. 01:08:24 Speaker 4: It's so interesting the divide between the polling and the vibes on that race, because that's definitely the one where you just feel The Democrat keeps stepping in it, keeps alienating people. It's fair to say that's an embattled campaign. You can tell the story. You can so easily write the story. But let's take a look at a national level. Ari, we asked this to Ryan as well, and we want to be honest about it. The polls say we're likely to lose the House, might lose the Senate, might really lose the Senate. So we looked ahead. The much more important race is 2028. So let's say we have an unfortunate night tomorrow. There's a lot of people out there who really want to stick a four in MAGA from one direction or another. You have Tom Tillis clearly wants us to lose. Cornyn clearly wants us to lose. On the other hand, you have people like Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes. They also are saying Republicans should lose. 01:09:11 Speaker 2: MAGA is dead. What is the takeaway. 01:09:13 Speaker 4: We should have if it's an unfortunate night tomorrow night, if we do lose badly? 01:09:18 Speaker 2: What should our... lesson learned for 2028 be in your opinion. 01:09:23 Speaker 10: Well there's a cycle and a rhythm in politics and we've seen this several times before and so if republicans lose remember republicans lost in 2018 and then they came back and took everything in 2022 or took back the senate they took the house in 2020 so it didn't last long and that seems to be the error we're in where control of the house control of the senate whoever is unfortunate enough to get it by a. 01:09:50 Speaker 9: It's almost like the. 01:09:50 Speaker 10: Country is screaming that they want the center to be strong. They don't want the wings to win. But people involved in politics really do love their wing. And so we're in this noisy clash. So I don't look at a long-term trend if Republicans lose in 2018, 2028, 2026. 2028 is going to be the big one again. And likely whoever takes the presidency in 2028 will take back the House, take back the Senate, and things go back into alignment. 01:10:21 Speaker 2: Yeah. And so I guess what would your, let's play the other scenario. Let's say we have basically a detente. Nobody really has a distinctive night. Or maybe Republicans do a little bit better. What are the takeaways then going to be? 01:10:34 Speaker 10: Well, the real big issue is the Democrat issue. Who are they going to nominate? Are they going to nominate an Abdul El-Sayed type candidate? Are they going to nominate an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez candidate? Is this progressive movement, is the socialist ascendancy inside the Democratic Party so strong that it can deliver a presidential candidate? If it does that, Republicans are going to win the White House by a huge margin in 2028. 01:10:58 Speaker 9: America is just not there. New York City's there. Washington, D.C. 01:11:02 Speaker 14: Is there. 01:11:02 Speaker 10: Los Angeles is there. But the rest of America just ain't there. Now, on the Republican side, of course, who's going to win? But I'll tell you this, as somebody who made a living in establishment Republican politics, but who has always been very open-minded about President Trump, his strengths and his weaknesses. 01:11:20 Speaker 9: That battle is settled inside the Republican Party. 01:11:23 Speaker 10: The populist movement that Donald Trump brought to power in 2015 and 2016 has won. The old country club establishment Republicans are really now Democrats. And they didn't give Donald Trump a fair chance. They just were against Donald Trump. So the populist movement is going to continue beyond Donald Trump. Who the candidate will be is an open question. And that's why I love primaries. I love competition. I love people coming to me and saying, here's who I am. Here's what I believe. Will you support me? And we look and we see who the competition is, see what the alternatives are, and it's. 01:12:01 Speaker 3: Up to us. 01:12:02 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right. And I would have to say edge to JD just because he is the vice president. And, you know, he's done, I think, a pretty good job of taking those center cuts. you know, 60, 70% positive issues, whether it's the war fraud. So, but listen, it's going to be interesting to watch. There's no doubt. And so my, I'm, we, Blake mentioned Ryan, Ryan, James Gerdeski. We asked him about Texas. That was the last question. He said, he thinks Talrico is going to take it. We're also looking at Kansas, right? Marshall's on, that's a dog fight. Do you see any surprises? Do you agree with Ryan? What's your take on some of those races that we really shouldn't be fighting, defending right now, but we are? 01:12:48 Speaker 10: Here's my sense. Susan Collins will be fine up in Maine. We're going to lose North Carolina. We're going to lose Ohio. We're going to lose Texas. We'll keep Kansas. We'll keep Iowa. And then you get out to Alaska. And that's a huge question mark to me. And it's going to likely take weeks to know who wins Alaska because of its ranked choice voter system. And if the Democrats take those four, then they're up in the Senate by one vote, which makes the Michigan flip, turn it back into a 50-50 Senate, which means Republicans keep the Senate. So Republicans, in my book, win 51-49 if they keep Alaska, 50-50 if they lose Alaska. 01:13:31 Speaker 2: So you think Texas, you think Paxton loses that? 01:13:35 Speaker 14: I do. 01:13:37 Speaker 2: It's crazy. It's rough. What does that mean for the future with Texas? It means we need a better Texas Republican Party is what I think it means. 01:13:45 Speaker 10: No, it means we need better candidates. It means in this case, and like I say, I'll call the balls and strikes with President Trump. I think President Trump made a mistake in who he endorsed in that primary. I respectfully disagree. 01:13:57 Speaker 9: I know you do. 01:13:58 Speaker 2: We're going to have Paxton on tomorrow. We're all in, and we want Paxton to win. But yeah, please finish your sentence. 01:14:03 Speaker 9: Well, and I want him to win also. 01:14:06 Speaker 10: But just looking at who would have been a stronger candidate to keep the seat, I think there's no question John Cornyn would have kept the seat. I think this had to do with personal animosity and personal issues between President Trump and John Cornyn, his loyalty to Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton's always been great for Donald Trump. So I think Donald Trump made a personal loyalty decision as opposed to what is the best candidate to win the state decision. 01:14:28 Speaker 9: I'd have made a different decision. 01:14:30 Speaker 2: Imagine, I just, it's a little disappointing those were our only two options in the state. Well, listen, it's not like this has already happened yet, guys. We have a chance to hold Texas, and we've got to turn out the vote tomorrow. So we can prognosticate after, but Paxton has to win in Texas. That's my take. But I'm glad to hear you so bullish on Michigan, because if we win Michigan, the whole math changes. The whole math changes. 01:14:55 Speaker 6: That's right. 01:14:55 Speaker 9: It's a pickup. 01:14:56 Speaker 2: Yeah. All right. All right, Fleischer. Fleischer Communications and former White House press secretary. Thank you, my friend. Good to see you. 01:15:03 Speaker 9: Always great to be with you guys. 01:15:04 Speaker 2: We hold control of the Senate. It's not a bad night. 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